Thu. Nite Buccaneers @ Vikings

Ok, back to the drawing board.  The home team couldn't cover last week in a tight divisional game, so now I'm left to figure out which way to go in the TB-Min battle.  Well, Jason and I are going back to the home team, and probably for the same reason--the Bucs stink on defense.  We all know the day will soon come when Minnesota comes crashing back to Earth, but it shouldn't be tonight as 5½-point favorites.  I'm conceding that Adrian Peterson and his surgically-repaired knee and sore ankle may not dazzle tonight.  But Tampa's allowing 8.5 yards per throw, so whatever AP can't gain, Christian Ponder should pick up throwing to Percy Harvin and Kyle Rudolph.  Jason sees it 31-20, and I concur almost to the number.

My Pick:  Minnesota 31-23

2012 Week 7: What I Learned

I learned that the sack +/- is not a stat to rely on, that it can be just as incapable of prediction as any other stat, and that nothing can get in the way of a shitty two-week run.  If it's gonna happen, it's gonna happen.  There was nothing I could do about it.  I just have to pick myself up and get after it again this week.

Week 7 Records--Dre 3-9-1, .250; Jay 6-6-1, .500
YTD Records--Dre 52-49-3, .515; Jay 51-50-3, .505

2012 Week #7

Fuckin' Thursday night bullshit got me in a bad mood.  Fuck Alex Smith.  Let's do this shit.

Fav	Spread	Dog			Dre	Jay
	Thu. Nite
SF (4-2)	9½	Sea (4-2)	SF 13-6		SF	Sea
	Sunday
NYG (4-2)	6	Wash (3-3)			Wash	Wash
MIN (4-2)	6½	Ariz (4-2)			Min	Ariz
Dal (2-3)	1	CAR (1-4)			Car	Car
NO (1-4)	1	TB (2-3)			TB	NO
GB (3-3)	5	STL (3-3)			GB	GB
HOU (5-1)	7	Bal (5-1)			Bal	Bal
IND (2-3)	1	Cle (1-5)			Cle	Cle
BUF (3-3)	3½	Tenn (2-4)			Buf	Buf
NE (3-3)	10½	NYJ (3-3)			NE	NY
OAK (1-4)	6	Jack (1-4)			Oak	Oak
	Sun. Nite
Pit (2-3)	1	CIN (3-3)			Cin	Pit
	Mon. Nite
CHI (4-1)	6	Det (2-3)			Chi	Det

Some of our thoughts and observations included:

I go against the sack +/- ratio three times this week as it pertains to the point spread.  That's not counting Thursday, when I vetoed it to take the home team even though Seattle's ratio was +5 and San Francisco's was -9.  Shows me.  Anyway, that's seven times out of 10 that I'm rolling with the team with the better ratio of sacks achieved versus sacks given up.  (Two games feature teams with the same ratio.)  Let's see how that works for me.

• We start with a division battle that didn't work so well for the Giants last year.  We both have to take the Redskins to cover the number because the G-Men are so good at coming up short against inferior competition.  In fact, they did so twice to Washington last season.  You remember last season, when the Giants won the Super Bowl.  And lost to the Shanahan Boyz twice.  Jas says RG3 and Washington will win again Sunday because, hey, what the hell.  I'm not going that far, but it would be so Giants to pump the 49ers last week as a big underdog and then come lay a turd this week.  (Sack +/- Wash -1, NYG +9)
• I want to make sure I accurately quote Jason's reaction when I informed him that Minnesota was giving 6½ points to Arizona:  "Huh?!?!?"  So you can see why he felt compelled to take the points.  He can't see giving the Vikings that much rope.  I'll do it because John Skelton is back flinging the rock for the Cardinals, and once he does his one trick, that is, throw deep to Larry Fitzgerald for a TD, then he's through.  And that 7 points will have to hold up, and I think Minnesota can score more than 13.  Not much more, but more.  Sack differential should play a part here in my favor.  (Sack +/- Ariz -9, Min +2)
• We feel eerily the same about the Cowboys-Panthers tilt.  We feel that Dallas is bringing the better team to the park, but because they're weak between the ears, they will lose.  The soap opera that is Cam's Crisis of Confidence got a one-week breather, and we hope that will result in Cam Newton playing much better ball than he has so far this year.  Against the Dallas pass defense, he can get the job done.  More fun with stats:  Dallas may fool some by possessing the #1 rank in pass yards allowed per game, but they're giving up 7.6 yards per throw, which means when teams get a chance to throw on them, they hit the big plays.  And Cam and the Panthers should be desperately looking for nothing but the big play.  (Sack +/- Dal +1, Car +1)
• Spoiler alert:  Jason's going to make it 4-for-4 taking road teams to cover spreads in division battles, so count this as #2.  He believes that the Saints and Drew Brees, who he was shocked to learn still has the #1 pass offense this year despite being 1-4, got it together against the Chargers a couple of weeks ago and are now poised to roll, maybe even securing an 8-8 record by the time the season ends.  Not so fast, my friend.  I'm taking the Buccaneers because the Saints and that shitty defense are still 0-4 under the interim interim coach in games not attended by Sean Payton.  (Sack +/- NO -1, TB Even)
• Jason doesn't feel quite as strongly about the Packers in St. Louis as I do.  He only sees a TD win for Green Bay as Aaron Rodgers scrambles and struggles a little against the formidable Rams pass rush.  I say, it was the formidable Houston pass rush that may have helped Rodgers focus and play with more pace and sharpness last Sunday night, and I don't see why the same fear of getting his head bounced on the ground if he doesn't hurry things along versus St. Louis won't push him and the offense again.  Feels like a double-digit drubbing to me.  (Sack +/- GB -2, StL -1)
• We both feel that it's a little ludicrous to bless the Texans with such a big spread against the Ravens just because the Ravens come in really, really beat up.  Isn't it like John Harbaugh and that team to rally in their moment of crisis and kick some ass, or at least lose close?  Jason says Baltimore's gonna kill Houston.  I don't know about that, but everyone burying Baltimore, be careful.  All of those traumatic season-ending injuries occurred on defense.  This is Joe Flacco and the offense's chance to show that they're for real.  The exposed, overrated Texans D should be happy to accommodate them.  (Sack +/- Bal -4, Hou +11)
• Take note of this special occasion because I don't think Jason and I will be both picking the Cleveland Browns very often in the same week.  Maybe not ever.  But we have our reasons.  Jas still admires Cleveland's ability to play tougher than expected, and who can argue that after they torched the Bengals last week.  I like to consider any team against Indianapolis that can run the ball, and a flakked-up Trent Richardson should still be tough enough to barrel through the Colts for about 150 and a low-scoring victory.  (Sack +/- Cle +4, Ind Even)
• We're not the biggest Buffalo Bills fans either, but my God, Tennessee sucks, even after they somehow beat the Steelers a week and a half ago.  Jason, as a fantasy owner of Titans dud RB Chris Johnson, would have the horrible Bills run D to look forward to, if not for the fact that it's still Chris Johnson.  We got Buffalo rather easily here.  I love the sack ratio.  Keep double-teaming Mario Williams, the other Bills are picking up the slack.  (Sack +/- Tenn -3, Buf +8)
• Jay was in pain as he forced himself to take big points and side with the hated New York Jets in Foxborough.  Something about picking Rex Ryan, Total Fraud, and the rest of Gang Green gives him the bloody shits.  And he should be worried, because I, the Jet Whisperer, will take Tom Brady and the Patriots to bitch-slap the Jets all afternoon and evening.  Oh, I heard that Rex, running low on backup RBs, would consider throwing Tim Tebow in the backfield.  You know what?  I've been pimping Tebow as a running back ever since he was drafted.  We know he's not a QB, he proved that last year.  I know the Pats have had a very good run D so far this year, but they're really not strong in their front seven.  Tebow would own them.  He would run for 100 yards this Sunday with no backfield reps during the week.  I really believe that.  Rex won't run him for more than a couple of plays, if that, because Tebow's the backup QB, and you can't run 20 times with your backup QB.  He's not smart enough to run Tebow, and he's gonna lose big again.  (Sack +/- NYJ -2, NE -2)
• This one's my Lock of the Week.  I realize how dumb it may be to back the Oakland Raiders and Interception Santa as a lock, considering how undisciplined and sloppy they can be, but man, I can't imagine the Jaguars flying cross-country into a hostile environment with the league's shittiest QB, Blaine Gabbert, and staying within a touchdown.  All that preseason talk about the improved Blaine Gabbert and how much better the Jacksonville passing attack is going to be?  They're averaging 143 passing yards per game.  143!!  (Sack +/- Jack -12, Oak -6)
• A couple of IMLD memes when the Steelers and Bengals rendezvous on Sunday night:  Usually, when a struggling Cincinnati team takes on a good Pittsburgh squad, Cincinnati comes out on top in the Blake-Pickens Corollary, which shone a light on how hard to predict division matchups could be.  In the 1980s, Cincy would be like 1-11 and have two games left against a 10-2 Pittsburgh squad, and Jeff Blake would throw for 400 yards each game, 160 to Carl Pickens, and the Bengals would win both games.  It doesn't apply here because Pittsburgh isn't especially good and won't be taking Cincinnati lightly, so Jason will go with Pittsburgh.  I'm still taking the Bengals because the Steelers are 0-3 on the road this year, they have no healthy running backs that you've ever heard of, and offensive coordinator Todd Haley is too dumb to let Ben Roethlisberger do what he does best and toss the pigskin around on deep routes to his receivers.  Haley will still try to establish a run game, which is how he got all his RBs hurt to begin with, and by the time Big Ben pops him upside the head to put in a real game plan, the Bengals will have a lead too big to surrender.  (Sack +/- Pit +1, Cin +3)
• As a Bears homer, I can't wait for Monday night.  A yappy, stupid, thuggish Lions team comes to Soldier Field, and I thoroughly feel like Chicago should tame the undisciplined Lions in a zoo-like atmosphere.  Alas, Jason the Bear Whisperer has turned into a Lion Tamer himself, and he will pick Detroit to cover the number.  Another close division rivalry game, he predicts.  I was already saddened by the Bear Whisperer picking against the Bears, which means they're a lock to lose.  Then Jason used the Lion Tamer line on me when I had already written down the "Bears tame Lions in the zoo" gag without telling Jay.  That told us that we've been friends for way too many years, and that it was time to hang up the phone.  (Sack +/- Det +3, Chi +4)

Thu. Nite Seahawks @ 49ers

Instead of stats for this divisional tilt, I'll go with two rules that say why I have to take San Francisco -9 and a hook.  Rule 1 is, of course, no more road teams on Thursday night.  Rule 2 is that I can't take a SF opponent that can't mount an early lead and make Alex Smith play QB from behind, which he does very poorly unless he's playing the New Orleans D.  I don't think Russell Wilson, for all his talent, can make SF play from behind.  Jason and I both see a low-scoring snoozefest, so it's how you feel about Seattle that decides which way you pick.  We both see the Niners posting 20 points.  Jas has the Hawks scoring 13 and therefore covering.  I got them only making it to 9.  Either way, I think the under is the safest play tonight.

My Pick:  San Francisco 20-9

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2012 Week 6: What I Learned

Not a whole hell of a lot, obviously.  I definitely learned a new stat to lean on, since the sack +/- beat both of our asses this week.  The sack +/- predicted the winner straight up at a 9-4 clip, and it went 8-5 ATS.  I'm not going to put all of my hopes and dreams on the stat, but rest assured, the sack +/- will return for another week.  The reason you can't put all your hopes on that stat?  Well, the actual sack count in each game did not correlate at all to who won or covered.  Taking out the two games where both teams had the same number of sacks (Dal-Bal and Cin-Cle), the team with more sacks this week went a stunning 2-9 straight up and 4-7 ATS.  So at least in Week 6 in 2012, it was way better to not sack the QB.  I'll keep my eye on this as the season wears on.  I have very few observations as far as the actual games.  The Cowboys were stupid and badly coached as always, and yet they still almost won.  Philadelphia's turnover problems aren't going away while Michael Vick starts, it seems.  I love Andy Reid's solution to that obvious problem--fire the D-coordinator, that was the issue the whole time.  Uh huh.  I guess I must be The Jet Whisperer since I have been able to pick them in all three of their wins.  But what if I don't wanna be The Jet Whisperer?  New England's soft defense let Seattle get the great comeback win, but don't shortchange the NE offense, which played just as big a part.  I fucked up the Giants-Niners game because I ignored my own rule of picking against San Francisco when they play a good offense that can get a lead and make Alex Smith play from behind.  God, was that ugly.  The prime-time games?  Hall of Fame QB whips out his dong and shows why he's a Hall of Fame QB.  Sunday was Part 1, and Monday was Part 2.  And I'm very thankful for both of them.  And the Thursday game, where the highly favored Steelers coughed it up on the road against the worst team in the league, the Titans?  Well, like I said, I'm fucking done taking road teams on Thursday night.  D-U-N.

Week 6 Records--Dre 5-9, .357; Jay 3-11, .214
YTD Records--Dre 49-40-2, .551; Jay 45-44-2, .506

Week 6 Recap: Humble Pie

And we thought Week 5 was bad.....

This is one of those weeks that's so bad it's even hard to fathom. It took an insane finish to the Monday Night game to save Dre and I from dual 4 win weeks. Instead, Dre was "propelled" to a 5 win week while I got to put up my overdue 3 win week. Amazingly, after a 5 and now a 3 win week, I somehow sit only 4 games behind Dre for the season. Of course, we were flirting with a .600 win percentage all season long, so a "market correction" was due.

There's no point in getting into much detail on all the games, considering how far off the reservation we both were with the majority of our picks, so I will restrict myself to comments where appropriate.

The "Who Cares" Games of the Week:

• Titans 26, Steelers 23 - Both losers
• Buccaneers 38, Chiefs 10 - Both losers
• Dolphins 17, Rams 14 - Both losers
• Bills 19, Cardinals 16 (OT) - Both losers

And now for the rest of the games, in much less detail:

• Falcons 23, Raiders (+9½) 20 - Both losers - Matt Ryan is trying to cement his reputation as one the greatest regular season quarterbacks ever. Take that exactly how it sounds.
• Jets (-3½) 35, Colts 9 - Dre winner, Jason loser - Looks like we get another week of Jet fellating. Oh, joy!
• Lions (+3½) 26, Eagles 23 (OT) - Dre winner, Jason loser - In this pass-happy NFL, it seems that no leads are safe anymore. Teams are coming back from late double digit deficits with alarming regularity. But, in this case, a "market correction" of its own took place, I believe. The Eagles had made turning awful performances into wins an artform, so it was nice to see a little karma drag the Eagles back down to Earth.
• Ravens 31, Cowboys (+3) 29 - Both losers - The Cowboys absolutely dominated yet another game, and still came up short. They passed and ran each for over 200 yards. They held the ball for over FORTY minutes. Thirty first downs. Stunning numbers. Oh, except they gave up big special teams plays with regularity. That seems to be another theme this season. It's hard to win when you give up free touchdowns and great field position. It was a good game to watch, though (this was my Super Bowl Preview, if anyone remembers....I hope you don't).
• Seahawks (+3½) 24, Patriots 23 - Both winners - Not much to say here, just MEAT GRINDER!!!!!!
• Giants (+6½) 26, Niners 3 - Jason winner, Dre loser - You don't rip a teams heart out the way the Giants did in the NFC Championship and expect one game to exorcise all the demons. The Niners must have had that in mind, because they did not look like the team that was rolling up fools all season. This is not a case of the Giants just being that good, its that the G-Men are in the Niners heads.
• Redskins (-1) 38, Vikings 26 - Jason winner, Dre loser - The RG3 76-yard touchdown run has to be epitome of what the Redskins can be. If Griffin has room to operate, that team can look electric. When his head if bouncing off the turf like it did in Atlanta, not so much. Also, the Vikings are living up to my prediction of being this years Buffalo Bills. They'll be in last in the NFC North before long.
• Packers (+3½) 42, Texans 24 - Dre winner, Jason loser - The Texans simply did not look ready for prime time. The Packers knew they were up against the wall, staring 2-4 in the face, and Aaron Rodgers picked a hell of a stage to put on one of his usual All Time games. Rodgers now joins the great Matt Flynn as the only Packer QBs to throw 6 TDs in one game.
• Broncos (-1) 35, Chargers 24 - Dre winner, Jason loser - How many people do you think went to bed at halftime of this game? The Chargers blew a 24-0 halftime lead and saddled me with a 3 win week. Thanks, guys! However, I had to play Aaron Rodgers AND Jordy Nelson in my fantasy league this week, so I was glad for the Peyton Manning-to-Eric Decker hookup that got me a hard fought win. I know none of you care about my fantasy team....I won three fucking picks this week, I needed something to hang my hat on.

2012 Week #6

Jason was so distraught from that upset loss Thursday that he's not available to defend his picks with me over the phone.  So his selections are below with very minimal detail.  That will allow me to try out a stunt in the Thoughts and Observations section.

Fav	Spread	Dog			Dre	Jay
	Thu. Nite
Pit (2-2)	6	TENN (1-4)	Tenn 26-23		Pit	Pit
	Sunday
ATL (5-0)	9½	Oak (1-3)			Atl	Atl
TB (1-3)	4	KC (1-4)			KC	KC
NYJ (2-3)	3½	Ind (2-2)			NY	Ind
Cin (3-2)	1	CLE (0-5)			Cin	Cin
PHI (3-2)	3½	Det (1-3)			Det	Phi
MIA (2-3)	4½	StL (3-2)			Mia	Mia
BAL (4-1)	3	Dal (2-2)			Bal	Bal
ARIZ (4-1)	4	Buf (2-3)			Ariz	Ariz
NE (3-2)	3½	SEA (3-2)			Sea	Sea
SF (4-1)	6½	NYG (3-2)			SF	NY
WASH(2-3)	1	Min (4-1)			Min	Wash
	Sun. Nite
HOU (5-0)	3½	GB (2-3)			GB	Hou
	Mon. Nite
Den (2-3)	1	SD (3-2)			Den	SD

My thoughts and observations will be accompanied by a digit for each team.  Since this is the age of passing and all that jazz, I'm going to see what correlation there is between sacks and wins.  My theory is that if you have to throw to win in today's NFL, then the teams with the better sack differential should win the games because how can you succeed at throwing when you can't protect your thrower or get to the opponent's thrower?  So each team's digit will represent their plus/minus in the sack department, that is, whether they give up more sacks than they allow, or vice versa.  If the number is positive, that means the team so far this year has achieved that many more sacks than they've allowed.  My pick will not match up with the bigger number necessarily; this is only an experiment.

• We start in Atlanta, where Jason said he "changed this pick 5 times while typing it out."  We know his hesitation at believing in the Dirty Birds.  I will not hesitate.  Oakland comes into a dome allowing 411½ yards from scrimmage per game with Interception Santa at the helm.  This is a mismatch.  (Sack +/- Oak -4, Atl +1)
• "Did I just pick Brady Quinn???!!!!??!!!?!?"  Yes, Jay, you did, and all those question marks and exclamations speak for both of us.  For all of the Brady Quinn hate we've had over the years, what he steps into on Sunday is a Kansas City offense with by far the greatest WR he's ever had (Dwayne Bowe, for the retarded), and they're playing by far the worst pass defense in the NFL this season.  Tampa is coughing up 9 yards per throw!  You kinda have to take Quinn with the odds in his favor that much.  I can see Jamaal Charles having a day in the 2nd half as the Bucs D spreads out trying to smother the passing game.  Yes, against Brady Quinn.  Stop snickering.  (Sack +/- KC -1, TB +1)
• Jason will go with the Flavor of the Month, Andrew Luck, and the Colts over Gang Green because, as he puts it, " Instead of LOLcats we should have LOLjets."  They have been a joke, no doubt.  But I think I'm rebelling against the crowning of Luck as the new elite QB, although I think very highly of him.  Does the Chuck Pagano Inspiration continue this week, or was that a one-time deal that magically whirs into action only in the 2nd half??  Indy's running out of running backs, so to win, the Jets only have to stop Luck and Reggie Wayne.  It's not easy, but outdoors, I think it can be done.  Shonn Greene may play a role, too, as New York gets to run on the Colts, which should be to the Jets' advantage.  (Sack +/- Ind +3, NYJ -5)
• I'm amazed at the Cincy-Cleveland line.  Cincinnati lost to Miami last week, not Little Sisters of the Poor, yet they're now only a 1-point fav at a winless Browns outfit that always competes and goes hard, except when they don't.  The Bengals gave up 27 to the Browns in Week 2 and still beat them by 7.  Is Cleveland scoring 27 on Cincy again?  Well, since that game, the Browns have scored 14, 16, and 27, so it's possible.  And the Bengals have surrendered 31, 10, and 17.  So take your chances on the Browns if you like.  We're backing the Bengals.  "Back to Bumslayin," says Jason, and if the Browns aren't bums, I don't know who is.  (Sack +/- Cin +3, Cle +4)
• I said last week that I'm through trusting Michael Vick, and I'm backing it up.  We know how much I can't stand Detroit, but off a bye, they should come after Vick and make some turnovers despite Vick reportedly walking around all week with a football in hand in order to learn how to keep it secure at all times.  That may work with a college sophomore.  Jason will take the Eagles.  "How many special teams TDs can Philly score?" he wonders, referring to the Lions and their lack of coverage on punts and kickoffs.  Hopefully for my sake, they remedied that during their break.  (Sack +/- Det Even, Phi -7)
• We'll go with those aforementioned Dolphins to get to .500 with a win over the Rams, who once again won't have the only decent WR on the roster, Danny Amendola.  His absence ruins an early-season duel of surprisingly prolific Caucasian receivers between himself and Brian Hartline.  Not sure how St. Louis throws without him and on grass.  Love the under here.  (Sack +/- StL Even, Mia +6)
• We're taking the Ravens to beat the Cowboys by at least 3 points.  It should be a close, one-score game, but we're both betting that Dallas finds a way to be on the wrong side of that score.  Baltimore used to really struggle against teams like this, who can strike first with a quick score before the D gets settled and put them behind the 8-ball early.  But with Joe Flacco's emergence, the Ravens shouldn't be afraid of that, at least not at home.  Last week proved that they still have some growing up to do in road games.  Luckily, this one's in the Raven's Nest.  (Sack +/- Dal +1, Bal -4)
• What's the cure for what ails Arizona after that Thursday night beating in St. Louis?  It's the Buffalo Bills!  They are the cure for everyone right now.  How can anyone pick Buffalo the way they've played the last two weeks?  The Bills are toxic right now.  That's your big breakdown of this game.  They'll probably let this nobody at RB for the Cardinals, William Powell, run for 100 yards.  (Sack +/- Buf +5, Ariz -6)
• New England goes cross-country to Seattle in a fascinating style clash.  Jason says "Pats in The Meat Grinder," referring to Qwest Field.  I concur.  Don't know if Jas is taking the Hawks to win, but I can hear him now saying it don't matter, so long as they cover.  I am going with Seattle for the victory.  It's just the kind of game that rah-rah master Pete Carroll can get his squad up for, and you know the crowd will be into it.  This is one where the sacks should matter, as Tom Brady and his line will find it hard to communicate and execute in that environment against that talented defense.  (Sack +/- NE -3, Sea +6)
• In the big rematch from last year's NFC title game, which would still be going if not for Kyle Williams fumbling, the Giants travel back to San Francisco, and I'm taking the Niners because I believe Coach Insane has been gearing them for this one since the start of the year.  No insight, just my feeling that he's that batshit crazy.  And since they lost in Minneapolis, they've been on a tear, destroying the Jets and Bills.  The Giants are better than the Jets and Bills, but they're certainly not playing better ball than the 49ers right now.  Plus, they're not in crisis yet, and they don't seem to play well unless they're in crisis.  If this were a playoff game, I'd take the points and pick SF straight up, like Jason is doing.  But I really do think that Jim Harbaugh has got his team thinking that winning this one somehow avenges last season's fuck-up, so I got San Fran by double digits.  (Sack +/- NYG +3, SF -3)
• I guess RG3 is healthy, because the NFL doctors have cleared him after he suffered a concussion last week so severe that he couldn't answer questions along the lines of what the score was and what city he was in.  BTW, that was labeled a "mild concussion."  What the fuck would he have to do to make it a severe concussion?  Start calling everyone by his mother's name while projectile vomiting?  So he's back, and everything's great, and he gets to host Jared Allen with a crappy o-line.  Uh oh.  Jason's going with the Redskins, and I hope he knows that probably means he's backing Kirk Cousins, because I have a funny feeling Bob Griffin ain't making it past the 1st quarter.  I will go with the red-hot Vikings.  (Sack +/- Min +5, Wash -4)
• Jason's backing the home teams in the prime-time matchups, and I got the visitors.  First, on Sunday night, a desperate Green Bay visits undefeated Houston, and because we know the Texans are going to outrun the Packers, it's going to be up to Aaron Rodgers to outthrow Matt Schaub if the Pack are to win.  I think he can do that, even though he won't have Greg Jennings again to throw to.  James Jones has finally been holding on to the ball after he catches it, and so far, they haven't missed Jennings that much.  I can see Dom Capers calling a game that hampers Andre Johnson and dares Schaub to succeed with his other weapons, of which he has few.   Turnovers should be key, as well as Green Bay drawing up protection schemes to block J.J. Watt from attacking Rodgers repeatedly.  (Sack +/- GB -3, Hou +12)
• Monday, Peyton Manning has yet another nighttime battle with an established veteran QB, this time Philip Rivers.  This early Denver schedule has been insane, but it should result in a win here because the San Diego environment is tame compared to other places Manning's had to go.  I really had to take notice of Peyton's performance in New England last week, throwing for 345 yards and 3 TDs in a game the Broncos were losing all the way, so everyone knew he had to throw.  If they're behind in SD, it won't be by much, and they can steal one late.  At least that's what I'm hoping.  I know I criticized Manning's throws, but as long as he's producing, I guess it really doesn't matter how long his wobbly-ass throws hang in the air.  I picked the Broncos to win the division, and this is a game they need to win if they're going to make it happen.   (Sack +/- Den +4, SD -4)