| Fav | Spread | Dog | Dre | Jay | ||
| Thu. Nite | ||||||
| Pit (2-2) | 6 | TENN (1-4) | Tenn 26-23 | |||
| Sunday | ||||||
| ATL (5-0) | 9½ | Oak (1-3) | Atl | Atl | ||
| TB (1-3) | 4 | KC (1-4) | KC | KC | ||
| NYJ (2-3) | 3½ | Ind (2-2) | NY | Ind | ||
| Cin (3-2) | 1 | CLE (0-5) | Cin | Cin | ||
| PHI (3-2) | 3½ | Det (1-3) | Det | Phi | ||
| MIA (2-3) | 4½ | StL (3-2) | Mia | Mia | ||
| BAL (4-1) | 3 | Dal (2-2) | Bal | Bal | ||
| ARIZ (4-1) | 4 | Buf (2-3) | Ariz | Ariz | ||
| NE (3-2) | 3½ | SEA (3-2) | Sea | Sea | ||
| SF (4-1) | 6½ | NYG (3-2) | SF | NY | ||
| WASH(2-3) | 1 | Min (4-1) | Min | Wash | ||
| Sun. Nite | ||||||
| HOU (5-0) | 3½ | GB (2-3) | GB | Hou | ||
| Mon. Nite | ||||||
| Den (2-3) | 1 | SD (3-2) | Den | SD | ||
My thoughts and observations will be accompanied by a digit for each team. Since this is the age of passing and all that jazz, I'm going to see what correlation there is between sacks and wins. My theory is that if you have to throw to win in today's NFL, then the teams with the better sack differential should win the games because how can you succeed at throwing when you can't protect your thrower or get to the opponent's thrower? So each team's digit will represent their plus/minus in the sack department, that is, whether they give up more sacks than they allow, or vice versa. If the number is positive, that means the team so far this year has achieved that many more sacks than they've allowed. My pick will not match up with the bigger number necessarily; this is only an experiment.
- We start in Atlanta, where Jason said he "changed this pick 5 times while typing it out." We know his hesitation at believing in the Dirty Birds. I will not hesitate. Oakland comes into a dome allowing 411½ yards from scrimmage per game with Interception Santa at the helm. This is a mismatch. (Sack +/- Oak -4, Atl +1)
- "Did I just pick Brady Quinn???!!!!??!!!?!?" Yes, Jay, you did, and all those question marks and exclamations speak for both of us. For all of the Brady Quinn hate we've had over the years, what he steps into on Sunday is a Kansas City offense with by far the greatest WR he's ever had (Dwayne Bowe, for the retarded), and they're playing by far the worst pass defense in the NFL this season. Tampa is coughing up 9 yards per throw! You kinda have to take Quinn with the odds in his favor that much. I can see Jamaal Charles having a day in the 2nd half as the Bucs D spreads out trying to smother the passing game. Yes, against Brady Quinn. Stop snickering. (Sack +/- KC -1, TB +1)
- Jason will go with the Flavor of the Month, Andrew Luck, and the Colts over Gang Green because, as he puts it, " Instead of LOLcats we should have LOLjets." They have been a joke, no doubt. But I think I'm rebelling against the crowning of Luck as the new elite QB, although I think very highly of him. Does the Chuck Pagano Inspiration continue this week, or was that a one-time deal that magically whirs into action only in the 2nd half?? Indy's running out of running backs, so to win, the Jets only have to stop Luck and Reggie Wayne. It's not easy, but outdoors, I think it can be done. Shonn Greene may play a role, too, as New York gets to run on the Colts, which should be to the Jets' advantage. (Sack +/- Ind +3, NYJ -5)
- I'm amazed at the Cincy-Cleveland line. Cincinnati lost to Miami last week, not Little Sisters of the Poor, yet they're now only a 1-point fav at a winless Browns outfit that always competes and goes hard, except when they don't. The Bengals gave up 27 to the Browns in Week 2 and still beat them by 7. Is Cleveland scoring 27 on Cincy again? Well, since that game, the Browns have scored 14, 16, and 27, so it's possible. And the Bengals have surrendered 31, 10, and 17. So take your chances on the Browns if you like. We're backing the Bengals. "Back to Bumslayin," says Jason, and if the Browns aren't bums, I don't know who is. (Sack +/- Cin +3, Cle +4)
- I said last week that I'm through trusting Michael Vick, and I'm backing it up. We know how much I can't stand Detroit, but off a bye, they should come after Vick and make some turnovers despite Vick reportedly walking around all week with a football in hand in order to learn how to keep it secure at all times. That may work with a college sophomore. Jason will take the Eagles. "How many special teams TDs can Philly score?" he wonders, referring to the Lions and their lack of coverage on punts and kickoffs. Hopefully for my sake, they remedied that during their break. (Sack +/- Det Even, Phi -7)
- We'll go with those aforementioned Dolphins to get to .500 with a win over the Rams, who once again won't have the only decent WR on the roster, Danny Amendola. His absence ruins an early-season duel of surprisingly prolific Caucasian receivers between himself and Brian Hartline. Not sure how St. Louis throws without him and on grass. Love the under here. (Sack +/- StL Even, Mia +6)
- We're taking the Ravens to beat the Cowboys by at least 3 points. It should be a close, one-score game, but we're both betting that Dallas finds a way to be on the wrong side of that score. Baltimore used to really struggle against teams like this, who can strike first with a quick score before the D gets settled and put them behind the 8-ball early. But with Joe Flacco's emergence, the Ravens shouldn't be afraid of that, at least not at home. Last week proved that they still have some growing up to do in road games. Luckily, this one's in the Raven's Nest. (Sack +/- Dal +1, Bal -4)
- What's the cure for what ails Arizona after that Thursday night beating in St. Louis? It's the Buffalo Bills! They are the cure for everyone right now. How can anyone pick Buffalo the way they've played the last two weeks? The Bills are toxic right now. That's your big breakdown of this game. They'll probably let this nobody at RB for the Cardinals, William Powell, run for 100 yards. (Sack +/- Buf +5, Ariz -6)
- New England goes cross-country to Seattle in a fascinating style clash. Jason says "Pats in The Meat Grinder," referring to Qwest Field. I concur. Don't know if Jas is taking the Hawks to win, but I can hear him now saying it don't matter, so long as they cover. I am going with Seattle for the victory. It's just the kind of game that rah-rah master Pete Carroll can get his squad up for, and you know the crowd will be into it. This is one where the sacks should matter, as Tom Brady and his line will find it hard to communicate and execute in that environment against that talented defense. (Sack +/- NE -3, Sea +6)
- In the big rematch from last year's NFC title game, which would still be going if not for Kyle Williams fumbling, the Giants travel back to San Francisco, and I'm taking the Niners because I believe Coach Insane has been gearing them for this one since the start of the year. No insight, just my feeling that he's that batshit crazy. And since they lost in Minneapolis, they've been on a tear, destroying the Jets and Bills. The Giants are better than the Jets and Bills, but they're certainly not playing better ball than the 49ers right now. Plus, they're not in crisis yet, and they don't seem to play well unless they're in crisis. If this were a playoff game, I'd take the points and pick SF straight up, like Jason is doing. But I really do think that Jim Harbaugh has got his team thinking that winning this one somehow avenges last season's fuck-up, so I got San Fran by double digits. (Sack +/- NYG +3, SF -3)
- I guess RG3 is healthy, because the NFL doctors have cleared him after he suffered a concussion last week so severe that he couldn't answer questions along the lines of what the score was and what city he was in. BTW, that was labeled a "mild concussion." What the fuck would he have to do to make it a severe concussion? Start calling everyone by his mother's name while projectile vomiting? So he's back, and everything's great, and he gets to host Jared Allen with a crappy o-line. Uh oh. Jason's going with the Redskins, and I hope he knows that probably means he's backing Kirk Cousins, because I have a funny feeling Bob Griffin ain't making it past the 1st quarter. I will go with the red-hot Vikings. (Sack +/- Min +5, Wash -4)
- Jason's backing the home teams in the prime-time matchups, and I got the visitors. First, on Sunday night, a desperate Green Bay visits undefeated Houston, and because we know the Texans are going to outrun the Packers, it's going to be up to Aaron Rodgers to outthrow Matt Schaub if the Pack are to win. I think he can do that, even though he won't have Greg Jennings again to throw to. James Jones has finally been holding on to the ball after he catches it, and so far, they haven't missed Jennings that much. I can see Dom Capers calling a game that hampers Andre Johnson and dares Schaub to succeed with his other weapons, of which he has few. Turnovers should be key, as well as Green Bay drawing up protection schemes to block J.J. Watt from attacking Rodgers repeatedly. (Sack +/- GB -3, Hou +12)
- Monday, Peyton Manning has yet another nighttime battle with an established veteran QB, this time Philip Rivers. This early Denver schedule has been insane, but it should result in a win here because the San Diego environment is tame compared to other places Manning's had to go. I really had to take notice of Peyton's performance in New England last week, throwing for 345 yards and 3 TDs in a game the Broncos were losing all the way, so everyone knew he had to throw. If they're behind in SD, it won't be by much, and they can steal one late. At least that's what I'm hoping. I know I criticized Manning's throws, but as long as he's producing, I guess it really doesn't matter how long his wobbly-ass throws hang in the air. I picked the Broncos to win the division, and this is a game they need to win if they're going to make it happen. (Sack +/- Den +4, SD -4)
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