| Fav | Spread | Dog | Dre | Jay | ||
| Thu. Nite | ||||||
| SF (4-2) | 9½ | Sea (4-2) | SF 13-6 | Sea | ||
| Sunday | ||||||
| NYG (4-2) | 6 | Wash (3-3) | Wash | Wash | ||
| MIN (4-2) | 6½ | Ariz (4-2) | Min | Ariz | ||
| Dal (2-3) | 1 | CAR (1-4) | Car | Car | ||
| NO (1-4) | 1 | TB (2-3) | TB | NO | ||
| GB (3-3) | 5 | STL (3-3) | GB | GB | ||
| HOU (5-1) | 7 | Bal (5-1) | Bal | Bal | ||
| IND (2-3) | 1 | Cle (1-5) | Cle | Cle | ||
| BUF (3-3) | 3½ | Tenn (2-4) | Buf | Buf | ||
| NE (3-3) | 10½ | NYJ (3-3) | NE | NY | ||
| OAK (1-4) | 6 | Jack (1-4) | Oak | Oak | ||
| Sun. Nite | ||||||
| Pit (2-3) | 1 | CIN (3-3) | Cin | Pit | ||
| Mon. Nite | ||||||
| CHI (4-1) | 6 | Det (2-3) | Chi | Det | ||
Some of our thoughts and observations included:
I go against the sack +/- ratio three times this week as it pertains to the point spread. That's not counting Thursday, when I vetoed it to take the home team even though Seattle's ratio was +5 and San Francisco's was -9. Shows me. Anyway, that's seven times out of 10 that I'm rolling with the team with the better ratio of sacks achieved versus sacks given up. (Two games feature teams with the same ratio.) Let's see how that works for me.
- We start with a division battle that didn't work so well for the Giants last year. We both have to take the Redskins to cover the number because the G-Men are so good at coming up short against inferior competition. In fact, they did so twice to Washington last season. You remember last season, when the Giants won the Super Bowl. And lost to the Shanahan Boyz twice. Jas says RG3 and Washington will win again Sunday because, hey, what the hell. I'm not going that far, but it would be so Giants to pump the 49ers last week as a big underdog and then come lay a turd this week. (Sack +/- Wash -1, NYG +9)
- I want to make sure I accurately quote Jason's reaction when I informed him that Minnesota was giving 6½ points to Arizona: "Huh?!?!?" So you can see why he felt compelled to take the points. He can't see giving the Vikings that much rope. I'll do it because John Skelton is back flinging the rock for the Cardinals, and once he does his one trick, that is, throw deep to Larry Fitzgerald for a TD, then he's through. And that 7 points will have to hold up, and I think Minnesota can score more than 13. Not much more, but more. Sack differential should play a part here in my favor. (Sack +/- Ariz -9, Min +2)
- We feel eerily the same about the Cowboys-Panthers tilt. We feel that Dallas is bringing the better team to the park, but because they're weak between the ears, they will lose. The soap opera that is Cam's Crisis of Confidence got a one-week breather, and we hope that will result in Cam Newton playing much better ball than he has so far this year. Against the Dallas pass defense, he can get the job done. More fun with stats: Dallas may fool some by possessing the #1 rank in pass yards allowed per game, but they're giving up 7.6 yards per throw, which means when teams get a chance to throw on them, they hit the big plays. And Cam and the Panthers should be desperately looking for nothing but the big play. (Sack +/- Dal +1, Car +1)
- Spoiler alert: Jason's going to make it 4-for-4 taking road teams to cover spreads in division battles, so count this as #2. He believes that the Saints and Drew Brees, who he was shocked to learn still has the #1 pass offense this year despite being 1-4, got it together against the Chargers a couple of weeks ago and are now poised to roll, maybe even securing an 8-8 record by the time the season ends. Not so fast, my friend. I'm taking the Buccaneers because the Saints and that shitty defense are still 0-4 under the interim interim coach in games not attended by Sean Payton. (Sack +/- NO -1, TB Even)
- Jason doesn't feel quite as strongly about the Packers in St. Louis as I do. He only sees a TD win for Green Bay as Aaron Rodgers scrambles and struggles a little against the formidable Rams pass rush. I say, it was the formidable Houston pass rush that may have helped Rodgers focus and play with more pace and sharpness last Sunday night, and I don't see why the same fear of getting his head bounced on the ground if he doesn't hurry things along versus St. Louis won't push him and the offense again. Feels like a double-digit drubbing to me. (Sack +/- GB -2, StL -1)
- We both feel that it's a little ludicrous to bless the Texans with such a big spread against the Ravens just because the Ravens come in really, really beat up. Isn't it like John Harbaugh and that team to rally in their moment of crisis and kick some ass, or at least lose close? Jason says Baltimore's gonna kill Houston. I don't know about that, but everyone burying Baltimore, be careful. All of those traumatic season-ending injuries occurred on defense. This is Joe Flacco and the offense's chance to show that they're for real. The exposed, overrated Texans D should be happy to accommodate them. (Sack +/- Bal -4, Hou +11)
- Take note of this special occasion because I don't think Jason and I will be both picking the Cleveland Browns very often in the same week. Maybe not ever. But we have our reasons. Jas still admires Cleveland's ability to play tougher than expected, and who can argue that after they torched the Bengals last week. I like to consider any team against Indianapolis that can run the ball, and a flakked-up Trent Richardson should still be tough enough to barrel through the Colts for about 150 and a low-scoring victory. (Sack +/- Cle +4, Ind Even)
- We're not the biggest Buffalo Bills fans either, but my God, Tennessee sucks, even after they somehow beat the Steelers a week and a half ago. Jason, as a fantasy owner of Titans dud RB Chris Johnson, would have the horrible Bills run D to look forward to, if not for the fact that it's still Chris Johnson. We got Buffalo rather easily here. I love the sack ratio. Keep double-teaming Mario Williams, the other Bills are picking up the slack. (Sack +/- Tenn -3, Buf +8)
- Jay was in pain as he forced himself to take big points and side with the hated New York Jets in Foxborough. Something about picking Rex Ryan, Total Fraud, and the rest of Gang Green gives him the bloody shits. And he should be worried, because I, the Jet Whisperer, will take Tom Brady and the Patriots to bitch-slap the Jets all afternoon and evening. Oh, I heard that Rex, running low on backup RBs, would consider throwing Tim Tebow in the backfield. You know what? I've been pimping Tebow as a running back ever since he was drafted. We know he's not a QB, he proved that last year. I know the Pats have had a very good run D so far this year, but they're really not strong in their front seven. Tebow would own them. He would run for 100 yards this Sunday with no backfield reps during the week. I really believe that. Rex won't run him for more than a couple of plays, if that, because Tebow's the backup QB, and you can't run 20 times with your backup QB. He's not smart enough to run Tebow, and he's gonna lose big again. (Sack +/- NYJ -2, NE -2)
- This one's my Lock of the Week. I realize how dumb it may be to back the Oakland Raiders and Interception Santa as a lock, considering how undisciplined and sloppy they can be, but man, I can't imagine the Jaguars flying cross-country into a hostile environment with the league's shittiest QB, Blaine Gabbert, and staying within a touchdown. All that preseason talk about the improved Blaine Gabbert and how much better the Jacksonville passing attack is going to be? They're averaging 143 passing yards per game. 143!! (Sack +/- Jack -12, Oak -6)
- A couple of IMLD memes when the Steelers and Bengals rendezvous on Sunday night: Usually, when a struggling Cincinnati team takes on a good Pittsburgh squad, Cincinnati comes out on top in the Blake-Pickens Corollary, which shone a light on how hard to predict division matchups could be. In the 1980s, Cincy would be like 1-11 and have two games left against a 10-2 Pittsburgh squad, and Jeff Blake would throw for 400 yards each game, 160 to Carl Pickens, and the Bengals would win both games. It doesn't apply here because Pittsburgh isn't especially good and won't be taking Cincinnati lightly, so Jason will go with Pittsburgh. I'm still taking the Bengals because the Steelers are 0-3 on the road this year, they have no healthy running backs that you've ever heard of, and offensive coordinator Todd Haley is too dumb to let Ben Roethlisberger do what he does best and toss the pigskin around on deep routes to his receivers. Haley will still try to establish a run game, which is how he got all his RBs hurt to begin with, and by the time Big Ben pops him upside the head to put in a real game plan, the Bengals will have a lead too big to surrender. (Sack +/- Pit +1, Cin +3)
- As a Bears homer, I can't wait for Monday night. A yappy, stupid, thuggish Lions team comes to Soldier Field, and I thoroughly feel like Chicago should tame the undisciplined Lions in a zoo-like atmosphere. Alas, Jason the Bear Whisperer has turned into a Lion Tamer himself, and he will pick Detroit to cover the number. Another close division rivalry game, he predicts. I was already saddened by the Bear Whisperer picking against the Bears, which means they're a lock to lose. Then Jason used the Lion Tamer line on me when I had already written down the "Bears tame Lions in the zoo" gag without telling Jay. That told us that we've been friends for way too many years, and that it was time to hang up the phone. (Sack +/- Det +3, Chi +4)
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