Well, I'm here and jumping back into the picks after a fabulous wedding weekend. Like any dedicated football fan, I'm neglecting the wife already and making this posting of our picks after midnight while she sleeps alone in the bedroom. And I have to work tomorrow! But I couldn't bear the thought of not fully analyzing my picks before making them, so I'm making this week an ultra stat week! Every one of my picks will have some useless stat to back it up. Read 'em and weep below:
| NYJ (3-3) | 1 | SD (4-1) |
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| SD | SD |
| CLE (2-3) | 3 | Sea (2-3) |
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| Sea | Cle |
| DET (5-1) | 4 | Atl (3-3) |
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| Atl | Atl |
| CAR (1-5) | 1 | Wash (3-2) |
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| Car | Car |
| Chi (3-3) | 1 | TB (4-2) |
| London, ENG | TB | Chi |
| Den (1-4) | 1 | MIA (0-5) |
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| Den | Den |
| TENN (3-2) | 3 | Hou (3-3) |
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| Tenn | Tenn |
| Pit (4-2) | 3½ | ARIZ (1-4) |
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| Pit | Pit |
| OAK (4-2) | 3½ | KC (2-3) |
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| KC | Oak |
| GB (6-0) | 9½ | MIN (1-5) |
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| GB | GB |
| DAL (2-3) | 13½ | StL (0-5) |
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| StL | StL |
| Sun. Nite |
|
|
|
|
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| NO (4-2) | 14 | Ind (0-6) |
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| NO | NO |
| Mon. Nite |
|
|
|
|
| Bal (4-1) | 9 | JACK (1-5) |
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| Bal | Bal |
Some of our picks and observations included:
- We both like a lot of the same teams this week, which is a recipe for disaster. But like I said, I can back up all of my selections statistically. We will both take the Bolts over Total Fraud and the Jets. New York has no real wins. They're 3-0 at home, but one was Dallas when Tony Romo threw the game to them, one was Jacksonville, and one was Miami. LaDainian Tomlinson may provide a spark when he starts at RB for the Jets, but how much gas will he have at the end? Useless Stat: San Diego, even while missing TE Antonio Gates much of the season, still averages 8.3 yards per passing attempt. I guess that Philip Rivers guy is pretty good. Oh, and Gates should return this week.
- Jason will go with Cleveland over Seattle in a "struggle" between two not-so-good teams. Can't call them bad right now because they're both 2-3, but they're on the cusp of bad. Jay just thinks Seattle is worse. Hard to argue, especially with the Seahawks sending Charlie Whitehurst out at QB. But think, can he be much worse than Tarvaris Jackson? I'm taking the Hawks, and the key may be Browns CB Joe Haden. If he gets over his balky knee and covers Sidney Rice, Whitehurst has few other weapons and Cleveland may be the smarter play. But Haden didn't practice Friday, never a good sign, so I'll go with Seattle. Useless Stat: Peyton Hillis has led the Brownies to 3.3 yards per carry as a team, and he's not even playing, leaving Colt McCoy and the Browns passing game to carry the load at 5.5 yards per attempt. Yuck.
- We're both going against America's Darlings, the Detroit Lions, and taking the Falcons for a big road win. As I said last week, the Falcons needed to get back to what made them great last year, and that was pounding the rock with Michael Turner and setting up the passing attack to Roddy White. Here comes Turner into the Motor City against a tired Lions D after they got the run-around last week vs. the Niners. Uh oh. Plus, I jumped on the Lions bandwagon last week and promptly crushed it. Let's see if I killed it dead or if they can revive now that I'm doubting again. Useless Stat: It's Atlanta's 4.4 yards per carry against Detroit's 5.2 ypc given up. I repeat: Uh oh.
- Jason's reaction to John Beck getting the call at QB for Washington: LOL. Then he reconsidered and called this an Elvis Game, referred to in this post from last season. It may be a trap because Carolina is 1-5 and not exactly a squad to be trusted to make the Shanahan Boys pay for playing musical chairs with the quarterbacks once again. But we have to take the Panthers because the Redskins can't change horses after one bad Rex Grossman game and be successful, can they? Useless Stat: Washington may contain Cam Newton and the passing attack somewhat, but they aren't equipped to hold off Carolina on the ground. The Skins are giving up 4.6 yards per rush, and Carolina is gaining 4.8 ypc.
- London Calling: It's the Chicago Bears going to Great Britain to play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a home game for TB. Huh? We don't feel very strong about it, but we differ on our selections. Jason will take the Bears as they try to win games with as few pass attempts as possible, in order to not get QB Jay Cutler murdered. Oh, and tell Mike Martz Jason said fuck him. I'll take the Bucs because they've played in this dumbass London game before and at least have the experience. They've been in London all week getting acclimated, while Chicago came over last night. Maybe that will make all the difference. Useless Stat: Tampa does rank 14th in passing yards per game despite QB Josh Freeman having a subpar season. So they're still committed to throwing, and the Bears safeties are always committed to letting the opponent throw. Chicago ranks 25th in defense pass yards per game, giving up 7.4 yards per attempt.
- We'll go with Jesus to walk on water in Miami and lead the Broncos to victory. Hey, as much as I bag on Tim Tebow and his inability to throw, I'm going to pick him in games where he doesn't have to throw to keep his team in the game and he can run on the opposition. We all know Tebow is his own goal-line back, and the Dolphins have been very accommodating this year to anyone who wants to step into the end zone. Plus, Miami can't win at home, and this particular home game will feel like a road game because of all the Tebow acolytes in attendance for U. of Florida Appreciation Day. Jason wants to know a couple of things: When Tebow thanks God at the end of games, does he just say "Thanks Dad"? And if he gets knocked out of the game in the 2nd quarter, will we call it The Resurrection if he comes back in the 3rd? Will it be like a bad wrestling angle where someone comes back from the dead? "By God, he...he's back!! He has risen!! Oh my God!!!" Useless Stat: Dolphins are 1-11 in their last 12 home games. I just got dry heaves.
- Can Houston win a low-scoring slugfest? They'll have to at Tennessee, because all-world WR Andre Johnson isn't back yet for the Texans. Their defense is missing Mario Williams as well, and they've been getting gashed on the ground, so it's about that time for Titans RB Chris Johnson to wake up and eat up some yardage. Tennessee sports one of the better defenses in the league. Jason said it's time for Houston to do what they do, and that's start off the season hot and burn out halfway through. Useless Stat: Texans are allowing 4.6 yards per carry. Calling Mr. Johnson, Mr. Chris Johnson...
- The Steelers better step up at Arizona if they intend to be a contender this year. Pittsburgh has been very unimpressive stopping the run, but they get a rushing attack led by Beanie Wells, so it's a good opportunity for the Steel to right the ship. That spread seemed awfully low, but Pitt's been less than top notch, so they've earned the disrespect. Let's see if they come out motivated or if they once again play down to their competition. Useless Stat: Pittsburgh's 8.2 yards per pass attempt matches up beautifully with Arizona's 8.0 yards per pass attempt surrendered. Like peanut butter and jelly.
- What the fuck is Hue Jackson doing? The Raiders turn their backs for one second to bury Cryptkeeper Al and Hue just gives away two possibly #1 draft picks for the carcass of Carson Palmer. I don't care what you think of the injured (and apparently unwanted) Jason Campbell. Carson Palmer hasn't played at a level better than Campbell in a couple of years, and he hasn't played football at all this year! What did Jackson think Palmer was gonna do, step in and look like the Palmer out of USC sixty years ago? All week after the trade, we heard Palmer's gonna start, Palmer's gonna start, and now, it looks like Kyle Boller. Know what that tells me? Carson looked like shit in practice, that's what that told me, either that or he got hurt. Jason will still take Oakland to do what they do best, and that's stick it up anyone's ass who tries to stop them from running. I'll take Kansas City because the Chiefs should load up to stop the run knowing that there's no QB on the Oakland sideline that can throw the rock and make them defend the pass. Useless Stat: Kansas City, even without Jamaal Charles, has achieved 4.6 yards per carry, and Oakland's given up 4.9, setting up holes for Jackie Battle and Thomas Jones, and eventually opening up room on the outside for WR Dwayne Bowe to operate.
- Good luck, Christian Ponder. He may not be playing Detroit, but he's being thrown to the lions. Green Bay has to be salivating at a rookie QB in his first start against the champs, and Minnesota shouldn't stand a chance. Useless Stat: Packers and Aaron Rodgers are moving the ball at an insane 9.7 yards per throw.
- We both can't bear the thought of Dallas, who's been coughing up leads and games all year, beating anyone by two TDs. We're certainly not taking St. Louis to win, especially having to start A.J. Feeley at QB for the injured Sam Bradford, but we'll take the Cowboys to fuck up something else and keep the Rams in the game. Useless Stat: Rams and Steven Jackson are running at a 4.4 yards per carry clip. They should be just as effective on the ground as Tashard Choice and DeMarco Murray.
- On Sunday night, it's more hot Indianapolis Colts prime time action. This time, they travel to New Orleans after the head coach got his knee blowed up and the Saints got beat at Tampa. Think New Orleans is gonna be a little mad for this one? Jason acknowledges that Indy keeps fighting and competing, but they're just a bad, bad team. Useless Stat: The Saints' 8.2 yards per throw matches up beautifully with the Colts' 8.3 defensive yards per throw. Like Jack Daniels and Coke.
- The Monday night game isn't very compelling, either. Baltimore, the 2nd best team in the league according to Jason, travels to Jacksonville to take on rookie QB Blaine Gabbert and the Jaguars. The most interesting thing about these two prime time matchups is how bad they're going to kill the World Series in the ratings. Football is king, and nothing else matters. Useless Stat: The key to beating Jacksonville, of course, is controlling RB Maurice Jones-Drew because there's no passing game for the Jags to lean on in a comeback attempt. The Jags are last in the league in pass yards per game. But MJD is facing the 3rd best run defense, and the Ravens are only surrendering 3.3 yards per rush. That deserves a special Scooby-Doo RUH ROH!
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