Here are the rest of Week 12's games, in much less detail.
| ATL (6-4) | 9½ | Min (2-8) |
|
| Atl | Min |
| Hou (7-3) | 6½ | JACK (3-7) |
|
| Jack | Hou |
| TENN (5-5) | 3 | TB (4-6) |
|
| Tenn | Tenn |
| STL (2-8) | 1 | Ariz (3-7) |
|
| StL | Ariz |
| CIN (6-4) | 7 | Cle (4-6) |
|
| Cin | Cin |
| NYJ (5-5) | 9½ | Buf (5-5) |
|
| NY | Buf |
| Car (2-8) | 3½ | IND (0-10) |
|
| Ind | Car |
| SEA (4-6) | 3 | Wash (3-7) |
|
| Sea | Sea |
| OAK (6-4) | 3 | Chi (7-3) |
|
| Oak | Oak |
| NE (7-3) | 3½ | PHI (4-6) |
|
| NE | NE |
| SD (4-6) | 5½ | Den (5-5) |
|
| Den | SD |
| Sun. Nite |
|
|
|
|
|
| Pit (7-3) | 10½ | KC (4-6) |
|
| Pit | Pit |
| Mon. Nite |
|
|
|
|
| NO (7-3) | 7 | NYG (6-4) |
|
| NY | NY |
Some of our thoughts and observations included:
- Of course, we start the week with a split on Thanksgiving. We'll probably split the six games we're opposite on Sunday. We come out versus each other with Vikings-Falcons. Jason picks the Vikings to stay close to Atlanta because the Dirty Birds haven't shown Jay an ability to close out games this season. He says it feels like a 27-19 type of game. I can see the 27 for Atlanta, but with no Adrian Peterson, I wonder where Jason gets the 19 for Minnesota. I will take Atlanta because this is the kind of game you get fat on if you're any damn good.
- Get used to me loving the home team this week. I go on a streak of nine in a row before I start going with the road team. I wasn't setting out to do that. I actually checked last year's Week 12 record ATS for the league thinking that it's much better to be at home after Thanksgiving because you didn't have the big meal and family gathering and then have to separate from that and hop a plane. It sure the fuck didn't matter last year because home teams were a stunning 4-9 versus the number. But I left the stats alone and went with my gut for most of these picks. Here's home love #2 for me--it's Jacksonville against Matt Leinart making his first start for Houston. I have nothing but bad memories of Leinart's prior attempts to be an NFL starting QB. So I'll go with the Jags to spring the upset. I love love love the under. Jason will take the Texans because they're not the Colts, and they won't totally crumble upon losing the starting quarterback like Indy has. Hard to argue against the Houston D so far this season, but I fully believe in Leinart's ability to fuck up and give the Jags a win.
- We both have home love for Tennessee because they're playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Jason says the Bucs blew their wad at Green Bay, playing their asses off on offense in what was their Super Bowl. He thinks they have nothing left for the Titans. I'll agree with that theory, adding that Tampa's horrible defense is just what Matt Hasselbeck and Tennessee's middling offense needs.
- It's clear that Arizona has one and only one play in their playbook: Throw a TD pass to Larry Fitzgerald. It's all QB John Skelton knows how to do, and it's all his backup did when he came in last week due to Skelton's ineffectiveness. So I'll give the Cardinals that seven points right off the bat because they get the ball to Fitz for a score once every game. Then I have to evaluate the opposing D to see if Arizona has a chance to score more than that seven. St. Louis doesn't have the greatest defense, but they can rush the QB, which seems to be Skelton's biggest issue, and I think the Rams can hold the Cards to that seven while hopefully scoring ten themselves behind RB Steven Jackson. Jason thinks St. Louis may only score six. So if nothing else, we love this under as well.
- I'd like to introduce a new term into the IMLD lexicon. I've used it many times. It's called "Class Drop." It comes from the racehorse handicappers milieu, and it defines what happens when a horse which has competed against a certain high level of horses takes a class drop for some reason and races horses on a lower level. That horse is usually the hot pick to bet, no matter how bad it's raced in its life. The thought is, this horse has been running with the big boys, and even though it's seen a lot of the asses of the big boys, it's still gotta be better than the lower-class horses it's gonna race today. Well, Jason and I are taking the Cincinnati Bengals to cover a TD over the Cleveland Browns because Cincy the last two weeks played Pittsburgh and Baltimore, and Cleveland is quite the class drop. Jason says it's like a major league hitter getting dropped to AAA and raking, like Joe Borchard liked to do for the Chicago White Sox. Couldn't touch major league pitching, but drop him a class, and look out!
- It's not easy for me to take Rex Ryan, Mark Sanchez--or Total Fraud to Jason--and the New York Jets after what they allowed Tim Tebow to do to them in prime time. But no one is playing worse football over the last few weeks than the Buffalo Bills, and that's with their best player, RB Fred Jackson, who just got put on I.R. We've decided that the song that should play to begin the DVD chronicling their season should be Tom Petty's "Freefallin'." Yet Jason will pick them just because they're not the Jets.
- I struggled with the Panthers-Colts game before going with Indianapolis to finally break through. If the Colts can't do damage against this shit defense, they really will go 0-16. Carolina has the #7 offense in the league. They're 2-8. That should tell you all you need to know about how bad their defense is. Not only will Jason ride with Cam Newton and the Panthers to squash the Colts, but he even threw out one of those foot-in-mouth deals that I always throw out: I jokingly said that Curtis Painter could put up 300 yards on this D, and Jason said if Painter throws for 300 in this game, he'd pick him up for his fantasy team. Now, as noble as that is, I'm of the mind that next time, I should require that he have to start Painter as well for the rest of the season. Having him riding your pine for a week or two is as good as nothing.
- Seattle as a favorite is a strange sight, but they're playing a coach so brain-dead that he thought John Beck could be the answer at QB. We'll take the Seahawks to cover over the Redskins, with the 12th Man roaring loud enough to cause some INTs from Sexy Rexy.
- Jason was all set to go with the Bears to cover a big number in the Black Hole, but they're only getting three points at Oakland despite the franchise QB taking a seat. We can't tell if this is love for what Chicago has built this season or lack of trust in Hue Jackson and Carson Palmer. But we're going to have to side with the Raiders covering over Caleb Hanie and the poor Bears. I have another angle as to why you should be wary of Chi-Town the rest of the way. People may think that losing Jay Cutler is no sweat because the Bears will simply redouble their rushing efforts in order to ride the great season of Matt Forte and take pressure away from Hanie. Well, Forte's last three games read 133 to 64 to 57 rushing yards. Isn't it possible, if not probable, that Forte has been used so much the first half of the year that he's starting to wear down, Chicago Bears?
- We agree on New England to step on the Philadelphia Eagles. How Jason picked them last week, I don't know, but he didn't press his luck again. For this pick, I consult the injury report, which says that the Patriots are going to be without two secondary players in Devin McCourty and Patrick Chung. Bad news, right? More open passing lanes for Vince Young? Wait, Philly could be missing a couple of guys in the secondary as well. Their names are Nnamdi Asomugha and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. And Philly gets to play Tom Brady and the Pats with an altered secondary? Yeah. Advantage NE.
- I have to order my Jesus #15 Denver jersey before they're sold out. Yes, I'm picking that idiot Tebow over the San Diego Chargers on the road. I'm sticking to my vow to pick Tebow when he faces a team that will allow him to run on them. San Diego is giving up 4.4 yards per carry, so they will be happy to escort Tebow around the left end and into the end zone, if he requests that of them. Combine that with how stinky QB Philip Rivers has been for the Bolts and the hot Denver pass rush, and I feel compelled to select Tebow as the Chosen One. That 5½-point spread against the Broncos shows that not all the nation believes in Timmy. Of course, as Jason points out, he shouldn't be popular among the gamblers and line-setters in Vegas. After all, it's Sin City. Ba dum-bum. Jay's not a believer in Tebow and the high-school offense at all. Maybe this is the time for San Diego to get right.
- We both like the Steelers off a bye to squoosh Kansas City, or as I'm calling them for the rest of the year if I can remember it, Kansas Shitty.
- And we're both on the Giants Monday night in New Orleans despite the Saints coming off a bye. Jason actually picks New York to win. I can't go that far, but I like them to cover a TD because they have to be embarrassed letting limp-wristed Vince Young punk them last week and are going to play desperate because they really need this game, and Jason thinks the Giant pass rush will be on a mission to take down QB Drew Brees. I was set to go with New Orleans until I saw that line. Just feels like a back-and-forth affair that ends with a FG. And sound the alarm, I'll leave you with a STAT ALERT: Don't think Eli Manning can't throw with Brees if the game is a shootout. Eli's Giants are 5th in the league in passing, gaining a whopping 8.3 yards per attempt. That's actually more ypa than Brees this year.
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