2011 Week #11

This week, I'm going to try to mix my gut picks with some stat-based picks and see what I can whip up.  Most of my picks are gut picks, but some are close games where I needed to consult some stats to make the difference.  But a couple are just a matter of taking the team with the better player on the field.  Here are our picks for Week 11:

Fav

Spread

Dog

Dre

Jay

	Thu. Nite
NYJ (5-4)	6	DEN (4-5)	Den 17-13		NY	Den
	Sunday
DET (6-3)	7	Car (2-7)			Car	Det
GB (9-0)	14	TB (4-5)			GB	GB
Dal (5-4)	7	WASH (3-6)			Dal	Dal
MIA (2-7)	1½	Buf (5-4)			Mia	Mia
CLE (3-6)	1	Jack (3-6)			Jack	Cle
MIN (2-7)	1	Oak (5-4)			Min	Oak
BAL (6-3)	7	Cin (6-3)			Bal	Bal
STL (2-7)	3	Sea (3-6)			Sea	StL
SF (8-1)	10	Ariz (3-6)			SF	SF
ATL (5-4)	6½	Tenn (5-4)			Tenn	Tenn
CHI (6-3)	3½	SD (4-5)			Chi	SD
	Sun. Nite
NYG (6-3)	5½	Phi (3-6)			NY	Phi
	Mon. Nite
NE (6-3)	14½	KC (4-5)			NE	NE

Some of our thoughts and observations included:

• We're going head-to-head right off the bat, as Jason will pick the Lions to rebound from being Sanduskied at Chicago last week and beat up on a weak Panthers unit.  Jay thinks the Lions are due to whip someone.  They are loving being the bullies and picking on the weaker teams, and Carolina, by record, is a weak team.  But I think, like any bully, that Detroit will shrink off when someone pops them in the mouth back, and Cam Newton seems to be the type of guy who doesn't take any shit from anybody.  I will pick Cam to bounce back from a bad game last week and pop the reeling Lions.  In a battle of QBs needing to come back from crappy games, between Cam and China Doll, give me Carolina to win.
• No stats needed to pick Green Bay to keep rolling.  Tampa's defense should provide no resistance for Aaron Rodgers, plus it will be chilly Packer weather.  Give us the Pack, squoosh.
• Cowboys and Indians scares me this time around because Washington is so down and so vulnerable that they are in prime position to strike and knock off Dallas.  Rex Grossman got his gig back, and you just know he's ready to throw it all around and prove that he never should have been stripped of his starting QB job.  And Jason's fond of saying how he can't take Dallas to cover big numbers because they seem to be too stupid to do so.  But Big D visiting the Redskins will amount to a sequel of Dumb and Dumberer, and we both will go with Dallas because right now, it seems Jason Garrett is a little less dumberer than the Shanahan Boyz.  Besides, Rex is shorthanded because Redskin WRs keep dropping like flies, and someone's gotta be open for Grossman to fling the ball to.  There aren't any healthy weapons left in the capital, unless Art Monk would like to unretire.
• Why is 2-7 Miami favored over 5-4 Buffalo?  Because one team is playing like complete dung lately, and it ain't the Dolphins.  We'll take Miami to win its 3rd straight.  Buffalo might be done.
• Jason's staying on that Cleveland Browns train, despite the train being headed for a cliff.  He'll take the Browns to find a way to beat an awful Jacksonville team.  I'll take the Jaguars to beat an awful Browns team because the best player on the field by far will be Jags RB Maurice Jones-Drew.
• Why is 2-7 Minnesota favored over 5-4 Oakland?  Maybe it's lack of trust in Oakland QB Carson Palmer, maybe it's the Raiders missing starting RB Darren McFadden.  Jason can't go with the Vikings over Oakland even though that means he's siding with Carson Palmer.  After all, we can't have Tim Tebow and the Broncos in 1st place, can we?  We will if Oakland loses.  I'll pick Minnesota not just to create a week of "Tebow in 1st Place" stories on ESPN all day long, but because Minnesota will have the two best players on the field in RB Adrian Peterson and DE Jared Allen.
• Hmmm, Baltimore isn't on the road and isn't playing a dogshit team?  We'll take 'em!  ( I add parenthetically that rookie QB Andy Dalton and Cincinnati will be without stud WR A.J. Green, and I'm not picking a rookie QB missing his best WR at the Baltimore D, even if the Ravens are without Ray Lewis.)
• Shouldn't Roger Goodell make a ruling that the four NFC West teams can't play each other in the same week?  That just creates a couple of completely shitty matchups that make it that much harder to enjoy the sport.  But we pick everything here at IMLD.  The first NFC West "battle" has the Seahawks at the Rams, and Jason steals my logic here and takes the Rams because in RB Steven Jackson, they will have the best player on the field.  I refer to my stats for this one:  The Rams put their #16 run game against Seattle's #12 rush defense, which is only allowing 3.6 yards per carry.  I say the best player gets held in check, and I will take Seattle for a rare road win.
• The next NFC West "duel" has the Cardinals getting big points at the 49ers.  No stats here.  San Fran's front seven on defense is great, they're limiting mistakes from QB Alex Smith, they're running the ball on anyone who wants to get in their way, and Arizona shouldn't be able to score more than the usual TD that John Skelton throws to Larry Fitzgerald, which is his only move.  Niners squoosh, and we love the under.
• We both actually like Atlanta to get a win over Tennessee because they're the better team, but we like Tennessee to cover the spread.  The Titans showed some real fight last week in destroying Carolina, so it's hard to imagine them getting blowed out in the Georgia Dome.  Believe it or not, QB Matt Hasselbeck has been excellent this season, and his arm can keep the Titans in any game.  Well, maybe not any game, but this one.
• Jason has a hunch that the Chargers are going to rise up and fire on the Bears because we're still waiting for the Chargers to make their annual push and because the Bears have their chests puffed out after killing Detroit and are prime for a letdown.  Why should I even try to justify my picking the Bears, who are clearly playing much, much better football than San Diego and probably should be a TD favorite?  All you need to know is, I just jumped on the Bears bandwagon after doubting them all year, and Jason has a hunch that they will lose.  What are you waiting for?  Go!  Go bet all you have on San Diego now!  Chicago is doomed!  Doomed, I say!
• And now for our Replacement Quarterbacks In Prime Time portion of our program.  Sunday night, God--er, Vince Young--gets to take his talents to Jersey and lead the Dream Team--um, the Eagles--into Giants Stadium to take on Eli Manning and company.  Didn't Young throw one pass in a game earlier this year and have it intercepted?  Bad sign, I say, and I'll take the Giants.  Jason's going with Philly to win because, well, it's God!  And because it would make absolutely no sense.  And I'm scared to death of this pick as well.  It is indeed the kind of game Eli and coach Tom Coughlin find a way to lose because they are mentally weak and they check out in critical situations.  But Young has looked so lost since coming into the league that I cannot justify taking Philly to go to New York and beat a good Giants team.
• On Monday night, everyone give a big warm reception to Tyler Palko!  *crickets*  Uh, okay...and now here's Tom Brady!!  *wild applause*  Yeah, there's no reason to think that whoever this Palko kid is has a chance, even if his Chiefs are playing New England, the worst pass defense in the league by the numbers.  It shouldn't matter.  Give us the Patriots to make it two Sanduskies in a row on Monday night, to go with the Packers anally raping the Vikings last week.  Hope Palko is quicker in the pocket than Sandusky is answering the seemingly simple question, "Are you sexually attracted to young boys?"  If he takes 16 seconds back there, even New England's pass rush will eventually get to him.