2010 Week #12

Here are the rest of Week 12's games.

Fav

Spread

Dog

Dre

Jay

Min (3-7)	1	WASH (5-5)			Wash	Min
Pit (7-3)	6	BUF (2-8)			Buf	Buf
CLE (3-7)	9½	Car (1-9)			Car	Car
HOU (4-6)	6	Tenn (5-5)			Hou	Hou
NYG (6-4)	7	Jack (6-4)			Jack	Jack
ATL (8-2)	1	GB (7-3)			Atl	GB
KC (6-4)	1	SEA (5-5)			KC	Sea
OAK(5-5)	1½	Mia (5-5)			Oak	Oak
BAL (7-3)	7½	TB (7-3)			Bal	TB
Phi (7-3)	3	CHI (7-3)			Phi	Phi
DEN (3-7)	3½	StL (4-6)			Den	Den
	Sun. Nite
IND (6-4)	2½	SD (5-5)			SD	SD
	Mon. Nite
SF (3-7)	1	ARIZ (3-7)			Ariz	SF

Some of our thoughts and observations included:

• Pissed off over our 3-0 SU Turkey Day record but 1-2 ATS, I ventured out on a new strategy this week.  I somehow convinced myself that the home team must be awesome on the Sunday after Thanksgiving because who plays well traveling away from the family right after Turkey Day?  And last year's numbers bear that theory out.  Home teams on the Sunday and Monday after Thanksgiving last year were a staggering 11-2 SU and 7-6 ATS.  Cool beans, I thought, I'll make all of my close picks home team picks.  However, to do that, I'd have to ignore the Sunday and Monday after Thanksgiving from two years ago.  Those home team numbers?  3-10 SU, 4-9 ATS.  WTF.  Oh well, maybe this week I'll just use less numbers and stats period and go with what feels right.
• Of course, to start, here's a game where my pick has already been made for me thanks to the Brett Favre Rule.  I was hoping new Minnesota coach Leslie Frazier would have ended the Favre Era himself as his first act, but he can't because he's an interim coach, and he has to get as many wins as possible to audition for a full-time gig next year.  So he's forced to go with the Little Wrangler because as useless as he is, he's still more apt to win the game than Tarvaris Jackson.  Anyway, Jason cites the Jason Garrett Effect and thus will take the Vikings to bounce up and get a victory.  I think I'd take Washington even if I wasn't bound by the Favre Rule because the Vikings have been horrible, and that's not Brad Childress's fault.
• We'll take Buffalo to cover at home against Pittsburgh because we can't help it.  We just love those cuddly little scrappy Bills.
• We'll take Carolina to cover on the road against Cleveland because Cleveland is starting the Human Interception Machine Jake Delhomme at QB again.
• We'll take Houston to squoosh Tennessee because Tennessee is starting something named Rusty Smith at QB.
• We'll go with Jacksonville as another road pick ATS over the New York Giants.  It just feels like an Eli Manning Screw-Up Game.  It's a secondary that he should destroy, but he's missing his two best receivers, Steve Smith and Hakeem Nicks.  Also, the Giants aren't sure what they want to do with their backfield.  Ahmad Bradshaw, clearly their most talented RB, will not start because he's been fumbling a lot.  But is Brandon Jacobs, who might outweigh Yokozuna at this point, the answer?  Manning and coach Tom Coughlin are both high-strung guys, and things have to be perfect for them to function.  Things aren't perfect.  Therefore, I will take the Jags straight up in a major upset.
• In a terrific matchup, Green Bay goes down to Atlanta, where the Falcons can't seem to lose.  I'll pick Matty Ice and the Dirty Birds just because they're at home.  Jason will step out on a limb and back the Pack.
• I admit it, I can't figure out the fucking Kansas City Chiefs.  I'll pick them at Seattle because I just think they're the better team, but I am still forecasting a Chief collapse at the end of the year.  Jason will go with Seattle, and I can't blame him because Seattle is the epitome of home field advantage, which is influencing so many of my picks this week.  But every time I go against KC, they screw me.
• More Chad Henne or more Bruce Almighty?  We'll pick Bruce Gradkowski and the Raiders over Henne and the Dolphins in the battle of crappy QBs.
• It was tough to give up 7½ points to an up-and-coming Tampa Bay squad, but I'll back Baltimore because, well, they're at home.  And they looked awesome in the 4th quarter against Carolina.  Jason will go with the Buccaneers because he can't resist taking 8 points and picking his guy Josh Freeman.
• I don't feel very confident in taking the Eagles over the Bears at Soldier Field, but Jason says to write that shit down.  He's got Jay Cutler for one of his patented 5 INT games.  There's a lot going against Philly for this pick--on the road, in frigid conditions, Michael Vick playing against the Cover-2 defense, which he traditionally struggles against, and the best Philly ballhawk who would go a long way towards picking off Cutler 5 times, CB Asante Samuel, is out.  Yet I'll still join Jason and take Philadelphia simply because I am of the firm belief that the Chicago Bears are successful due to their schedule and not because they're a cohesive unit.  I'm on record right now--the Bears aren't winning more than 2 games the rest of the season, and they won't make the playoffs.
• It was tough picking against Sam Bradford and the Rams too, because Denver is such a dog team, and their coach can't stay out of trouble (Josh McDaniels has another Spygate situation because one of his guys taped a SF practice before their game in London).  But we will give 3 and a hook and take the Broncos because, well, they're at home.  And St. Louis absolutely blows on the road.
• We can both see the Chargers continuing their hot streak and going into Indianapolis and taking out the Colts.  Vincent Jackson returns at WR for the Chargers, as if Philip Rivers needs more weapons, and Indy seems to have problems against San Diego in the regular season.  If the Bolts come to Indy in the playoffs, I'd take the Colts and give 10.
• And in the worst Monday night game EVAH, Jason will take Coach Psycho and the Niners because Arizona's really bad, and I'll take the Cardinals because, you guessed it, they're at home.