| Fav | Spread | Dog | Dre | Jay | ||
| Thu. Nite | ||||||
| BAL (2-1) | 12 | Cle (0-3) | Bal 23-16 | Cle | Cle | |
| Sunday | ||||||
| NE (1-2) | 3½ | BUF (2-1) | NE | NE | ||
| HOU (3-0) | 11½ | Tenn (1-2) | Hou | Tenn | ||
| SD (2-1) | 1 | KC (1-2) | SD | SD | ||
| DET (1-2) | 4 | Min (2-1) | Min | Det | ||
| ATL (3-0) | 7 | Car (1-2) | Car | Car | ||
| Sea (2-1) | 3 | STL (1-2) | Sea | StL | ||
| SF (2-1) | 4½ | NYJ (2-1) | SF | NY | ||
| ARIZ (3-0) | 5 | Mia (1-2) | Ariz | Mia | ||
| DEN (1-2) | 7 | Oak (1-2) | Den | Oak | ||
| Cin (2-1) | 1 | JACK (1-2) | Cin | Cin | ||
| GB (1-2) | 9 | NO (0-3) | GB | GB | ||
| TB (1-2) | 1 | Wash (1-2) | TB | Wash | ||
| Sun. Nite | ||||||
| PHI (2-1) | 1 | NYG (2-1) | Phi | Phi | ||
| Mon. Nite | ||||||
| DAL (2-1) | 3½ | Chi (2-1) | Dal | Chi | ||
Some of our thoughts and observations included:
- New England has a rough history in Buffalo, especially last season when they blew a big lead, but we're both liking the Patriots here. Neither of us is very impressed with the Bills, and the Pats and Coach Belichick should still be huffing and puffing and angry from their encounter with the replacement refs last Sunday night. Useless Stat Alert! Don't assume that Buffalo will enjoy a big advantage running the ball; NE is only allowing 3.3 yards per rush this year.
- Do not get me started railing against Detroit for losing that game in Nashville last week, and don't let me go on about how bad I still think Tennessee is. And I'm a Jake Locker fan, but geez, he's not that good, Detroit's defense just made it seem that way. Houston's defense? Kinda good, so I'll take them and give big points. Should be the Lock of the Week. I don't see the Titans scoring a touchdown. Jason's not in a giving mood, so he'll take those big points, even though the Texans look like the class of the league. Useless Stat Alert! Let's see Locker duplicate his aerial performance without WR Kenny Britt on the road and facing the 4th-ranked pass defense in the league, surrendering only 5.7 yards per throw.
- The San Diego-Kansas City pick is all about New Orleans. Huh? Well, we don't believe KC is any good, because their big win last week came over a bad New Orleans defense that has let every team it's played earn its only victory of the season. Therefore, we love San Diego. How's that for giving the Chargers respect? We love them even though we're not paying them any attention. We just think Kansas City stinks. Useless Stat Alert! Kansas City is already 0-1 at home, having been torched in the opener by Atlanta, and they're giving up 8.3 yards per pass attempt.
- Speaking of bad, do not get me started railing against Detroit...oh wait, I already railed against Detroit two picks ago. Therefore, I will get cute and pick them to beat Minnesota but not cover 4. Just feels like a FG victory to me. The Lions don't seem cohesive enough to cover a big spread against anyone. Jason calls it a Lions squoosh because the Vikings should be feeling great about themselves coming off of the big San Fran upset, and they should be ripe for the picking. Useless Stat Alert! Maybe Christian Ponder can take advantage of that putrid Detroit pass defense, as he leads a group averaging a stunning (for them) 7.4 yards per pass.
- We're both getting cute and taking Carolina to cover a big number in Atlanta against one of the hottest teams in the NFL. Jason didn't see Atlanta the first two weeks, like John Cena with his hand in front of his face. But he jumped on them last week while I had the Bolts, and it didn't work for me. Now Jay's back doubting, and I'm joining him because I think Cam Newton got enough bad press for his bad play and bad attitude versus the Giants that it will motivate him to a big game against the Falcons' beat-up secondary. If the Panthers don't slow Atlanta down on that Georgia Dome track, it might be a blowout, but we're sticking with Cam and the Cats. Useless Stat Alert! Newton's still hitting big plays, as the Panthers are averaging 9.8 yards per pass attempt, tied for most in the league with Cincinnati.
- How will the Seahawks respond to the gift from Monday night? Badly, says Jason. He likes St. Louis to get 'er done because they're comfortably mediocre, just like all of Jeff Fisher's teams, and that should be enough to knock off a lucky Seattle squad. I say, Seattle is a notch above mediocre, especially on defense, and they should be hungry to prove that the Monday gift was not a fluke. Useless Stat Alert! It's another bad offensive line for Seattle to snack on; the Rams have surrendered 12 sacks already through 3 games, and the Seahawks have made 10 after picking up 8 versus Aaron Rodgers and the Packers.
- Jason's going to set aside his Jet hatred in order to pick Gang Green over San Francisco because that's how much he hates a West Coast team traveling to the East Coast for an early game. Sound reasoning. I'm going with the Niners despite the humbling loss they suffered in Week 3. That game in Minneapolis showed me that Alex Smith and company are shit if they fall behind because they don't have a come-from-behind type of offense, and I have no faith in Total Fraud building an early lead. Useless Stat Alert! It's a nice offense for San Fran's D to bounce back on; New Yawk ranks only 23rd in net yardage.
- Can I win a late game this week?! I fucked them all up last week. Let's start in Glendale, where the Cardinals may be the talk of the league if not for the substitute teachers in zebra stripes. They're 3-0, if you haven't heard. I will put an end to their good fortunes right now by jumping on the bandwagon and crushing it like only I can. I'll give that 5 and take the Redbirds over the Fish. Arizona's been doing it with suffocating defense so far this season, and Miami is not the right team to come in and break that up. Reggie Bush is their best player by a mile, and he's really banged up. Jason likes Miami anyway. He hates this game because he doesn't have a great feeling either way, but he's going to go against the overhyped team in this matchup and take the points. I LOVE THE UNDER. Useless Stat Alert! If Bush is ineffective or doesn't start, it would be up to Ryan Tannehill and the 25th-ranked Dolphin pass offense to perform against Arizona's 7th-ranked pass defense, giving up only 5.9 yards per throw. Will Miami even score?
- I jump back on the Peyton Manning bandwagon, even though it looked old and rickety last week against Houston. But that's how much I don't believe in Oakland. The big comeback win over the Steelers was nice, but I think Denver's defense will provide a little more resistance for Darren McFadden and the Raiders. It's too many points and too many bad-looking Manning throws for Jason, who sides with the Silver and Black covering in the altitude in a division battle. Useless Stat Alert! For all of Manning's miscues and 1-2 record, his passing offense is still 14th in the league, averaging 7.2 yards per pass attempt, and they get to fire at Oakland's 26th-ranked pass defense.
- The Bengal Bumslayer Rule says that we have to pick Cincinnati because they're playing a bad team in Jacksonville. Simple rule: If Cincy's playing a good team, go against them. If they're playing a bad team, go with them. Easy money. A resurgent Maurice Jones-Drew should not be enough for the Jags once Andy Dalton and A.J. Green get cranked up for the Bengals. Useless Stat Alert! It's the only one you need. Bengals 9-0 last year against losing teams, 0-7 against winning teams.
- New Orleans is so bad that they're a 9-point dog to a team that just had a crushing controversial loss on Monday night and have to head home to play on a short week. And Jason is going to sweat this one out with me, because he had the Saints to cover at first, then changed his pick. Tsk tsk. How many times has one of us changed a pick only to see our original choice reign victorious? But I talked him into it because New Orleans is so historically bad on defense and Green Bay should be mad and fired up when they take the field. In the Goodell Bowl of teams royally fucked by the commissioner, we'll go with the team with the much better defense. And Jason thinks, maybe the officials give the Pack a call or two as sort of a mea culpa to make up in a small part for the Monday night debacle. Useless Stat Alert! The first three defenses Green Bay had to play this season currently rank 11th (San Francisco), 6th (Chicago), and 4th (Seattle). New Orleans? 30th. Rodgers' first contest against a bad D. Oh, shit.
- Speaking of bad defenses, please welcome Mike Shanahan and his Washington Redskins to Tampa, where Josh Freeman will be waiting to take advantage of a secondary that's been victimized by everyone who's come across it. You won't see me picking TB very often due to a favorable matchup for Freeman and the Tampa Bay aerial attack, which leaves a lot to be desired for me. But I can't pass this opportunity to keep pounding the Skins, who were everyone's darling team after Week 1. Jason will go with the Skins and Robert Griffin III to step up against a Buccaneers team that may be young and hungry but isn't very good yet. Useless Stat Alert! It's the two worst pass defenses in the league going head-to-head, with Washington #31 and Tampa Bay #32. But with no Pierre Garcon to take advantage for the Redskins, that leaves an edge for Freeman and his healthy Bucs.
- Very intriguing prime time battles, starting on Sunday with one more (last?) chance for Michael Vick to perform to expectations and lead the Eagles not just to victory, but to a decent performance that's not marred by a multitude of turnovers. Unless they're apple. Everyone loves apple turnovers. (Womp womp.) We're no fans of the G-Men in big games, so against our better judgment, we'll ride with Vick one more time against a defense that has to pressure him or else get torched in their injured and bad secondary. We just don't think the New York Giants are that good, and we think they will struggle against a Philadelphia defense that has shown flashes of great play against the Browns and Ravens. Useless Stat Alert! The Giants are sporting a gaudy 9.3 yards per pass attempt given up on defense. Seriously, Vick needs to grab Jeremy Maclin, DeSean Jackson, and Brent Celek by the facemasks and let them know that there are big plays to be had downfield.
- It's a big one personally for me on Monday night, as my hometown Bears face the Cowboys, who seem to be the favorite team in this area here in Memphis, Tennessee. If Dallas wins, I will not hear the end of it from my co-workers. But I have to take Dallas because Jay Cutler and the Bears have given me no reason to trust them with this new offense in prime time in a hostile environment against a rude and physical pass rush. I don't want to sound like a typical sports talk radio caller, whining about Cutler not being able to see at night due to his diabetes or some other stupid bullshit reason, but I haven't seen him play a good game at night in forever. I can't pick Chicago until they show an ability to get the job done in a big spot in spite of their terrible offensive line and probably terrible playcalling by Mike Tice. Jason's loving that hook and going with Dallas to win by a FG. Whatever the reason, if Jason the Bear Whisperer likes Chicago and the points, that makes me very scared. Useless Stat Alert! The worst o-line loses, and it looks like that would be Chicago. Cutler's been sacked 11 times and been forced into 6 interceptions, while Tony Romo has been sacked 7 times and thrown 3 picks.
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