2012 Week #1

Aaaaannd...they're off!

Fav

Spread

Dog

Final

Dre

Jay

Wed. Nite

NYG

4

Dal

Dal 24-17

Dal

Dal

Sunday

CHI

10

Ind

Chi

Chi

MIN

3½

Jack

Jack

Jack

NYJ

2½

Buf

NY

Buf

HOU

12½

Mia

Hou

Hou

NE

4½

TENN

NE

NE

Elvis

DET

9

StL

StL

Det

NO

9

Wash

Wash

Wash

Phi

9½

CLE

Phi

Phi

Atl

2½

KC

Atl

KC

GB

5

SF

GB

SF

Sea

2½

ARIZ

Sea

Sea

Car

1

TB

Car

Car

Sun. Nite

DEN

1

Pit

Pit

Den

Mon. Nite

BAL

7

Cin

Bal

Bal

OAK

1

SD

SD

Oak

Some of our thoughts and observations included:

• We see things the same way in most of the early Sunday games.  In Chicago, Jason and I both like the new-look Bears to romp past the new-look Colts, making it 0-1 for rookie starting QBs even though Andrew Luck should be the most successful of the five in the long haul.  This is a potentially bad spot for Luck, though.  In his very first real pro game, he gets Julius Peppers trying to eat him and a Tampa-2 defensive look to decipher.  I actually wouldn't be too surprised if he solved the puzzle and had some success, however.  Luck is very, very intelligent.  Jason just sees a rookie QB squoosh.
• As terrible as Blaine Gabbert was as the Jacksonville quarterback last year, Christian Ponder wasn't much better for Minnesota.  Maurice Jones-Drew suits up for the Jags, but won't see much PT.  Meanwhile, Adrian Peterson won't be in the game much on the other side of the field.  It's pretty much a toss-up in the Tidy Bowl Crap Game of the Week.  We're taking the Jags to win on a hunch.
• I should give Jason the Buffalo win already because siding with the New York Jets never works out for me.  But I'll back off on striking out my pick before the game even starts.  Jay's right when he observes that the J-E-T-S are a mess, mess, mess, and they should struggle to score any points.  But I'm rebelling against the early hype for the Bills as a sleeper playoff team.  Yeah, they added some great pass rushers, but if those guys don't arrive at the QB, then the QB gets to torch that same back seven that he has the last few years.  Even if that QB is named Total Fraud.  And I have a stat, of course.  Bills, 1-7 on the road last year, Jets 6-2 at home.  And now they have Jesus on their side.
• We really like Houston over Miami, and so does the rest of the betting world, making the Texans the biggest favorites this week.  I tried to not necessarily make my season predictions match up with my picks in Week 1, because of course, just because you made the playoffs doesn't mean you won the first game you played that season.  But in this case, Miami is so bad and Houston is so good, how can I not go with the obvious choice?  Hell, Jason says this may be a shutout.  When your one and only yardage threat is Reggie Bush, who was hot garbage before the 2nd half of last season, you don't have much in the way of hope.  0-2 for the rookie QBs thus far.
• Jason didn't want me to label this our first Elvis Game of the year, but he's the one who mentioned the word "trap" when he found New England, fresh off a Super Bowl appearance, favored by only four and a hook at a mediocre Tennessee squad.  It's a curious line, but I get it--you got a first-year starter at QB for the Titans in Jake Locker, so you don't know what to expect there, but you admit that he's in a perfect spot for his first start.  It's a huge name opponent.  It's at home.  If you show up and give it a game effort, you get pub and a confidence boost.  And the defense you're playing stinks like a sausage factory.  I was leaning towards picking the Titans a few weeks ago when I found out about the matchup because of those factors.  Now the magic moment has arrived...and I got Brady throwing for 300 yards and like 4 TDs and the Pats with a 10-point win.  Yep, I'm a chickenshit.
• Here goes the beginning of my Detroit hate for this season--I'm picking Sam Bradford and the Rams to cover the number on the road at the Lions.  I must really hate Detroit.  I'll never be a bigger Steven Jackson fan than during this contest.  Jason's no Lion lover, but it's the Rams.  He can't see St. Louis holding off the Stafford-to-Johnson connection.
• Here goes my wild and zany upset special of Week 1, and my attempt to not let my preseason picks obscure my vision of these particular games.  I got Washington TO WIN.  Jason merely has them covering, but that's 1-2 for the rookie QBs in our eyes.  My dislike and distrust of the Shanahan Boyz is well-documented, and I don't have them sniffing the playoffs.  But in this, the interim interim Saints coach's first rodeo, I'm taking Robert Griffin III to run around, make some plays, and shock all of New Orleans.  This is the type of ego-boosting skin on the wall that will motivate the Shanahan Boyz to pull out all the stops in order to pull off the win.  And DC will be abuzz, and then Griffin will play better defenses and get pulverized.
• 1-3 for rookie QBs, as Brandon Weeden meets his first pro opponent in the Philadelphia Eagles and wishes he were lying next to Art Modell and not having to witness the carnage.  As always, Jason says, the key for the Eagles is, will Michael Vick be upright when the game ends?  Against the Cleveland Browns, the answer is, yep.  Sure will.
• Very different viewpoints on the Falcons-Chiefs matchup.  Jason says there's no way Atlanta is coming away with a season opener in Arrowhead Stadium.  The Dirty Birds don't get it done on Opening Day, he says, and this will be more of the same.  I definitely disagree, but I add that this is the time for the Falcons to change it up and get the job done.  If ever there was a time to put a flamethrower to those early-season woes and slow starts, this is it.  Kansas City will not have its only pass rusher, Tamba Hali, who's suspended, and their secondary is already banged up.  Your move, Matty Ice.  Your move.
• On to the afternoon slate and the clear main event of the weekend, 49ers at Packers.  I had to adhere to my preseason ramblings and go with the Pack to win and cover here.  I imagine if Green Bay gets to the QB early and rattles him, the prodigy Alex Smith may not throw for 200 yards.  If San Fran's pass rush is the real deal, here's a great chance to flex those muscles against an average at best offensive line.  Let's see what you got, boys.  Jason says this is the matchup we were waiting for in the playoffs last year, but the Giants changed those plans.  Now it's here, top offense vs. top defense, and he's going with the 49ers defense to win.
• Now here's something we may never have seen before.  This phenomenon of starting a rookie QB right out of college is a recent one, so there aren't many to choose from, but how many rookie QBs have been road favs in their very first game?  We'd guess it's never happened.  Such is the love surrounding the new kid on the block, Seattle's Russell Wilson.  And we think that it's so absurd, so ludicrous...that we're going to pick him and give the points.  That's how fucking pitiful John Skelton and the Arizona Cardinals are.  Put Ken Whisenhunt out of his misery and fire the fucker, already.
• Jason messed up this pick for us by citing a stat.  He tried to rationalize it, saying that he only came across it by accident and it didn't really mean much, but the fact is, he cited it.  He knows how bad I do on a pick when I cite a stat, but he did it anyway.  It was just something about how much Cam Newton owned the Buccaneers statistically last year.  Yes, Cam owned pretty much everyone he played last year.  We could have ignored that and just picked the Panthers to rout the Bucs and moved on.  But no, Jason cited a stat, and now Carolina's gonna get upset by Tampa, and there's nothing we can do about it.  Thanks a lot, Jason.
• On a special Sunday edition of Sunday Night Football, Peyton Manning gets to resume his Hall of Fame career...against a Pittsburgh defense that last played against that same Broncos team in that same building, getting carved up by Tim Tebow and having their season ended.  Think they remember that?  I do.  That's why I'm taking Pittsburgh to come in and gain a measure of revenge against Denver, even though Manning had nothing to do with their loss earlier this year.  Jason will go with the Broncos.  If Peyton's still got it, he's got a prime time stage to show everyone, and Jason will root hard for him to complete his comeback with a victory.
• On to the Monday night doubleheader, which I always get hyped for during the day, only to fall asleep in the first quarter of the nightcap.  First up, Baltimore, our Super Bowl pick, hosting Cincinnati.  Jason declared Dalton-to-Green the new-age Jeff-Blake-to-Carl-Pickens combo, and if you're too young to know about that duo, look it up on your own personal Google machine.  That combo never won diddly squat because once you stopped that play, the Bengals had nothing left, and it may be the same now.  This is my Lock of the Week, BTW.
• And on the West Coast, the Raiders will fight through their crowd and try to avoid getting shivved before they take on the Chargers.  Jason will ride with Darren McFadden, the oft-injured but hugely talented Oakland RB, and he'll take Interception Santa over the Bolts.  I don't doubt that McFadden will dominate in the running game, but it's San Diego QB Philip Rivers's first chance to show what he's got after that abominable 2011 campaign.  I'll have plenty of chances to be proven wrong if Rivers, TE Antonio Gates, WR Malcom Floyd, and others on the Chargers are not yet healthy and are hurting the team.  But in their very first game?  Give me Rivers over the #27 pass defense last year.  Fuck, there I go using stats again.  I just handed another pick to Jay.