| Fav | Spread | Dog | Final | Dre | Jay | |
| Sat. Nite | ||||||
| Atl (12-2) | 3½ | DET (4-10) | Atl 31-18 | Atl | Atl | |
| Sunday | ||||||
| GB (10-4) | 12½ | Tenn (5-9) | Tenn | GB | ||
| CAR (5-9) | 9½ | Oak (4-10) | Car | Oak | ||
| MIA (6-8) | 4½ | Buf (5-9) | Mia | Mia | ||
| PIT (7-7) | 3½ | Cin (8-6) | Cin | Pit | ||
| NE (10-4) | 14 | JACK (2-12) | NE | NE | ||
| Ind (9-5) | 7 | KC (2-12) | Ind | Ind | ||
| DAL (8-6) | 1 | NO (6-8) | NO | Dal | ||
| Wash (8-6) | 6½ | PHI (4-10) | Wash | Phi | ||
| TB (6-8) | 3 | StL (6-7-1) | StL | TB | ||
| HOU (12-2) | 9½ | Min (8-6) | Min | Min | ||
| NYJ (5-9) | 1 | SD (5-9) | NY | SD | ||
| DEN (11-3) | 13 | Cle (5-9) | Den | Cle | ||
| NYG (8-6) | 1 | BAL (9-5) | NY | NY | ||
| Chi (8-6) | 6 | ARIZ (5-9) | Ariz | Chi | ||
| Sun. Nite | ||||||
| SEA (9-5) | Pk | SF (10-3-1) | Sea | Sea |
Some of our thoughts and observations included:
- Our first of 15 this Sunday starts on the frozen tundra, which really will be frozen when the Titans visit the Packers. The frigid conditions worry me when taking Tennessee to cover because so much of their offense is predicated on Chris Johnson breaking that one big run that loosens up the D for the rest of the day, and I don't know how the weather will affect him, if at all. I'm still going to take the Titans because I like their general direction and because that's a lot of points. Jason will take Green Bay in what he calls an "ugly squoosh," because he doesn't fully trust the Pack to put together a consistent game but he trusts them more than Tennessee.
- Guess that scintillating 15-0 victory inspired Jay to take the Raiders to cover against Carolina. Or maybe it's the Panthers not exactly inspiring trust in covering that large number. I'm giving the points not just because Carolina and Cam Newton seem to be putting it together, but because Oakland's coach Dennis Allen, in his infinite wisdom, said that he wants to use QB Terrelle Pryor in 3rd-down packages to see what he's got. That sounds like disaster. I think if Pryor had that much to offer the 4-10 Raiders, he would have found himself on the field by now. Forcing him in like this just screams "Tebow Package," and we know how that worked in Gotham City.
- Uninspiring Miami hosting uninspiring Buffalo. What to do? We'll both give the points and take Miami because at least they seem to show up most Sundays. Between home games in Toronto and injuries and lackluster play, don't the Bills have to have quit by now?
- I don't want to say that the Steelers have necessarily quit, but I'm writing them off as old and hurt and spiraling out of the playoff race. The Bengals may be bumslayers, but Pittsburgh has played like bums the last two weeks, getting shellacked by San Diego and coughing it up in Big D. I think CB Ike Taylor not being able to play has really damaged Pittsburgh, because the next-best player in the secondary may still be Troy Polamalu, and he's just a ball of late-arriving hair, jumping into every play long after the big yardage has already been gained. They've been burned by Philip Rivers and Tony Romo, and now Andy Dalton and A.J. Green come into town, and I think they might feast. Jason knows that the Steel need this win to stay in the playoff hunt, so he'll side with them over the bumslayers. I admit that this would be a typical Cincinnati moment to come up lame when all seems in their favor, but I really don't believe in Pittsburgh right now.
- All-star New England travels to grade-school Jacksonville. I wistfully remember the days when Brady & Belichick would go into some poor schmo's town and be 14 or 15-point favs and cover easily. We anticipate a return to those days, coming off the big loss to San Francisco. There's just no reason to pick Jacksonville to cover even though it's the largest spread of the week.
- Ditto Kansas City, who seems to have quit based on them going to Oakland and holding them to no touchdowns and deciding not to score at all. As great as RB Jamaal Charles has been with no help, he's no Adrian Peterson. Unless they have another murder/suicide to inspire them soon, Jason says they don't stand a chance. Now, that said, I am scared of this big spread because Indianapolis seems to have fallen into the hero habit of trailing early and letting Andrew Luck lead them back late. That doesn't inspire confidence to pick a team to win by more than a touchdown, but we're doing it anyway because, well, it's the Chiefs.
- Again, I am tempted to pick Dallas to get a big win in their playoff chase, and again, I decide to go against them. They're a hard team to like in a close game even though they've made a habit of winning them lately. You figure that one of these days, they're going to revert to being the stupid Cowboys and find a way to gag one up. I'll pick this one against the Saints, who apparently haven't quit yet, to be the gag game. Jason thinks the lock of the century is the over, like 62-59 crazy-type shit. But we know how Jason's locks have done this year, so caveat emptor.
- Welcome back Robert Griffin III to the battlefield, as the people of the greater DC area hold one rosary for his melon and another for his sprained knee. Watching Kirk Cousins run his offense and win might inspire Bobby Three-Sticks to show out in a big game for Washington's playoff hopes, so I'll take him over Philadelphia, and good luck trying to figure out which Eagles team will show up for the game. But Jason will pick them to cover that spread, thinking maybe Andy Reid can lead his squad to one more big effort.
- Jas likes the Buccaneers over the Rams at home, well, just because. I hate those picks where he doesn't have a reason because he usually wins. Well, I've got a reason to go with St. Louis, and it's they're way more mature than Tampa and their college coaches.
- Call us Houston Haters if you wish, but we still don't believe in the Texans as a great team despite the great record. Jason likes the Vikings to stay close and cover the big number, and I'll pick Minnesota to actually win the game. Why not? Apparently nobody's stopping Adrian Peterson the rest of the season as he grabs the single-season rushing record, and if he can run through average run defenses like Chicago and St. Louis with everyone keying on him, then Houston shouldn't be any different. I think Houston's very beatable.
- In a struggle between two extremely beatable teams, San Diego and the New York Jets battle to decide which team wants to get its coach fired the quickest. Despite Jason believing that the Jets are actually going to keep Rex Ryan after the season, he'll take the Chargers, although he really bounced back and forth with this pick. Neither team is one of his favorites, but he'll be a Norv Turner fan for one day. I'm picking the Jets simply because they're not playing Total Fraud, but if they were starting Jesus instead, I'd be all over the Bolts.
- I'm impressed with how thoroughly Peyton Manning has taken control of the Denver Broncos on-field product. I think he'll keep the momentum going over the Browns knowing that Denver needs to keep winning in order to hold that 2nd AFC bye. Jason's got that Brown Fever again this week in the altitude, because Denver has been up-and-down in covering huge spreads this year.
- I'm not thoroughly impressed with the way Eli Manning can hold one's attention with great football, then simply turn in a stinker like last week in Atlanta. Nevertheless, it's him or Joe Flacco and the world's most uncoordinated offense, so I gotta side with Eli. Jason concurs. The Ravens appear to be in pure freefall.
- Speaking of which, the Chicago Bears are trying for the all-time "get your coach fired" streak as they attempt to become the first team since Prohibition to miss the playoffs after starting 8-1. Jason's stat, not mine. But he's still picking Chicago because that's how bad Arizona is. Well, Chicago's so bad that I'm taking Arizona to win. Why not? They did it to Detroit when no one expected it, and Detroit isn't death spiraling quite like the Bears. They're my team, but I don't see cohesion, execution, or imagination.
- The atmosphere for the Sunday night game should be an all-timer. Just a fever pitch. I'm imagining what a Seattle fan is doing all day to get amped up for a fight for the top of the division with the 49ers, and then he and his fellow fans take that alcohol or drug or whatever into the Meat Grinder, already with the rep as the loudest outdoor stadium in the NFL. Man, I'd love to be there. Seattle takes its 54-point average over its last two games to their house, and sitting on 6-0 at home (the only team undefeated at home besides the Falcons), we can't see San Fran pulling this one out. I wonder why we got a true pick-em line for this one, which I haven't seen picking NFL games on covers.com maybe ever. But whatever the reason, it felt great to have a true toss-up and not have to worry about getting a push on a 1-point line. This game will definitively give us a true winner...unless they finish in a tie. If that were to happen, I think the planet may stop turning on its axis.
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