2011 Week #13

Before I get into the picks for lucky Week 13, a little note for a future post (or maybe it's more like a warning):  Look for a column sometime next week from me breaking down each team in a unique way.  It's probably been done somewhere else, but I haven't seen it, so it's original to me:  I will have an analysis of all 32 teams, what they look like this season and how they will fare at the end of the year, and compare each one to...wait for it...an old-school pro wrestler!  I'm sorry, "sports entertainer."  So for those of you who remember your favorite rasslin' stars from the '80s and '90s, I've assigned each team an old wrestling act based on their commonalities and who each team reminds me of.  It may be stupid, it may be enlightening, but I'll try to make it entertaining.  Now, on to the picks:

Fav

Spread

Dog

Dre

Jay

	Thu. Nite
Phi (4-7)	3	SEA (4-7)	Sea 31-14		Sea	Phi
	Sunday
MIA (3-8)	3½	Oak (7-4)			Oak	Mia
Atl (7-4)	1	HOU (8-3)			Atl	Atl
BUF (5-6)	1	Tenn (6-5)			Tenn	Tenn
CHI (7-4)	7	KC (4-7)			KC	KC
NYJ (6-5)	1	WASH (4-7)			NY	Wash
PIT (8-3)	7	Cin (7-4)			Pit	Pit
TB (4-7)	2½	Car (3-8)			Car	Car
Den (6-5)	1	MIN (2-9)			Min	Den
NE (8-3)	20½	Ind (0-11)			Ind	NE
Bal (8-3)	7	CLE (4-7)			Bal	Cle
Dal (7-4)	4½	ARIZ (4-7)			Ariz	Dal
GB (11-0)	6½	NYG (6-5)			NY	GB
SF (9-2)	13½	StL (2-9)			SF	SF
	Sun. Nite
NO (8-3)	9	Det (7-4)			NO	NO
	Mon. Nite
SD (4-7)	3	JACK (3-8)			SD	Jack

Some of our thoughts and observations included:

• We start in Miami, where the Dolphins have played as hard as any team in the last four weeks, despite the 3-8 record.  I hope they're not trying to save coach Tony Sparano's job, because that's a lost cause.  But Jason will take the Fish because they've been efforting well and because he can't trust Carson Palmer and the Raiders.  This one's a very tough pick for me because I truly can see Miami winning by a field goal.  I have to stay true to my feeling and pick Oakland to cover that 3 and a hook.  Would anyone be the least bit surprised if the Raiders outgained the Dolphins in total yardage and still found a way to lose thanks to Carson Palmer throwing a horrible pick late?
• We're not sure why Atlanta's only favored by a point at Houston, who's on their 3rd QB.  As underachieving as the Falcons have been, who's willing to bet against them versus someone named T.J. Yates?  Gotta roll with the Dirty Birds here.
• We like Tennessee to take out Buffalo in New York.  The Bills seemed to get things together against a weak Jets squad, posting 24 points, but the Titans have certainly played much better ball lately.  Chris Johnson found his running game against Tampa, and now he gets a Buffalo rush defense that's been on the bottom half of the league for several years running.
• I've got the whole scenario figured out in Chicago when the Kansas City Chiefs visit Soldier Field.  Jason's only taking the Chefs to cover the number because he can't fathom Caleb Hanie covering 7 on anyone.  Here's my bold prediction:  Is it really 27 straight quarters without an offensive TD for Kansas City?  Even KC coach Todd Haley isn't retarded enough to leave a real NFL QB, Kyle Orton, on his bench the entire game and stay with the wholly unimpressive Tyler Palko.  He had to install Palko as the starter one more week because it gives the Bears defense a decoy to prepare against, and it also slows down some of the "Orton returns to Chicago" questions that Haley and Orton would have faced all week.  But take my word for it, Orton is in once the 2nd half begins.  No way Palko sees the field after halftime, and he may well get his ass yanked before.  And with the substitution, Orton goes for over 200 yards on his former team and leads KC to a comeback win.  Write that shit down.
• Jason and I have both been very vocal concerning our hatred for the people on the Redskins and the Jets.  So it's funny that we have different picks for this battle between the Shanahan Boyz and Total Fraud.  We separately agonized over this pick and came out with different viewpoints.  He likes Washington because he thinks the Jets are ready for a full blown collapse.  I like New York because Total Fraud only performs against the truly hapless defenses in the league, and the Skins still can't cover or tackle.
• We know that Cincinnati isn't quite ready to compete with the big boys in the NFL, but we're charged with picking ATS here.  It's easy to say that Pittsburgh will beat the Bengals, but will they do it by more than a TD?  We're both saying yes, but I gotta admit, I would call it Steelers by exactly seven points if I were predicting a score.  I'm taking the Steel because in the event that my prediction would be wrong, I'm more sure of a Pitt blowout than I am a Bengal uprising.
• Josh Freeman has not been good at QB for Tampa Bay this season, so we'd probably like Cam Newton and the Panthers to come in and rip that Godawful Buccaneers D to shreds if Freeman were out there.  But it looks like his backup Josh Johnson will have to play, and that's less passing ability in a game where Tampa could easily be behind by a lot early.  Seems simple to us--Carolina by a lot.  There might be 500 combined yards rushing, but only one of the QBs can throw.
• Jesus travels to the Metrodome, and Jason will go with our Lord and Savior in, what else, a low-scoring contest.  All of Tim Tebow's games are low-scoring contests because he and the Broncos possess that ball forever as they try to run and run and run.  Jason can't get past Minnesota trying to win football games without the league's best RB, Adrian Peterson, when they spent all season losing games with him.  I'm rolling with the Vikes because I'm holding true to my theory of picking Tebow to beat teams who aren't good at stopping the run.  Well, Minnesota's pretty good at stopping the run.  They used to lead the league perennially in rush defense when they had the Williams Wall as their DTs, but even without them this year, they're 9th, and they're only giving up 3.7 ypc.  I'm looking forward to seeing what happens the first time Jared Allen meets Tebow on one of Jesus's option scrambles.  I'm betting it won't be fun for Tebow, and I'm taking the Vikes to win a close one.
• And from a one-point spread to almost three TDs...yeah, there's no way anyone can pick Indianapolis to walk into Massachusetts and pull off one of the biggest upsets in league history.  But the Colts gotta have some fight in them, don't they?  This is a game that was originally scheduled for Sunday night but had to be flexed out once the league got a whiff of how bad Indy was without Peyton Manning.  But the rest of that team has to look at this game like their Super Bowl, their one chance to show how good they can be against a quality opponent.  And besides, how easy can it be to get a late score and earn a backdoor cover when the number's fucking 20?!?  Add the fact that it's the New England D that's gonna try to hold the lead, and I'll ride with Dan Orlovsky and the Colts.  Give me those big points, baby!  Jason will make the smart pick and take the Patriots because even if you spot Orlovsky and Indy a 21-point lead, they'd still lose the game 42-21.
• Jason's going with the Browns to cover a big home number against the Ravens because, of course, Baltimore is playing an inferior team on the road, and this season, that has spelled disaster for Baltimore.  No doubt about that, but I'll pick the Ravens to break that trend.  They got the extra rest coming off the Thanksgiving night win over SF, and that's important for an older team like Baltimore, plus I would hope that they remember how bad Cleveland RB Peyton Hillis punked them twice last season and tried to parlay that into a big contract, and I'd hope they give a little payback to Peyton.
• Despite Dallas going on a nice little run of bum-slaying, I'll still take Arizona to cover the number in the desert.  Yes, the Cardinals are another bum, but they're getting Kevin Kolb back at QB, and I think just that upgrade over the awfulness that was John Skelton can boost Arizona to staying within a FG and maybe even pulling off the upset.  I don't know how much I trust RB Beanie Wells to repeat his performance last week, but if he does, that's another weapon in the Cards' favor.  Jason doesn't believe in that Beanie performance at all.  He likes the Cowboys to keep on slayin' bums.
• In the game of the week, Green Bay will try to keep up their high performance at the Giants despite the long layoff from Thanksgiving.  I don't know how much rest the Packers really needed.  They're so hot that maybe it broke their rhythm to have eleven days off.  Another red flag for me is what kind of physical and emotional boost New York may get from the return of RB Ahmad Bradshaw.  Emotion means so much in big games like this, especially at Giants Stadium.  If the Pack aren't at the same level as the Giants emotionally, they can get beat.  And of course, there's the bad GB defense ready to get torched at any given moment.  All of that makes me pick the Giants to cover the number, although I can't call the upset.  Jason will stick with the hot hand of Aaron Rodgers to overcome.  He laughs at the "experts" warning that last game in Detroit was the potential pothole for Green Bay, and when that didn't happen, they moved on to this game in New York being the potential pothole.  Not gonna happen, says Jay.
• What happens when a college team comes across an inferior opponent?  They try to make a statement and run up the score.  Jim Harbaugh acts like a college coach full of testosterone, and his 49ers are ornery coming off a Baltimore ass-whooping.  The St. Louis Rams are playing the role of Northwestern, and San Francisco will be more than happy to act like Wisconsin and slap them around a little.  Even if the pop gun SF offense can only muster 17 or 20, we'll still take them to cover because it's hard to imagine the Rams minus Sam Bradford finding more than 6 points.
• And speaking of ass-whooping, how can we pick against New Orleans after what they did to the Giants?  They're the epitome of arrow pointing up, and the Detroit Lions are the epitome of arrow pointing down.  Wonder how much bullying they're gonna do without their biggest bully, Ndamukong Suh, who's serving a two-game suspension by crashing his ride into a tree.  We're betting the Saints will be doing the bullying Sunday night.
• And on Monday night, we may be sleeping.  Twice in Jacksonville on Monday night?  Why, God, why?  We got into a spirited conversation about how bad this Monday night announcing crew is.  They make us miss Mike Patrick and Paul Maguire, and even Joe Theismann.  It was much better discussing that than this game.  But we'll be going against each other, so we'll be at least a little interested.  Jason's got the Jags over the Chargers because they turned it up on Monday night already this year against Baltimore, and they don't appear to have quit yet, and plus, San Diego blows so hard this season.  I am taking the Bolts despite how much they suck.  I don't care what the fuck is wrong with Chargers QB Philip Rivers, if the choice is him or Blaine Gabbert, a million out of a million times, my pick will be Philip Rivers.