Time to find out if I can duplicate my fortune from last week, or will Jason re-establish his dominance? Only one way to find out! On to the picks for Week 14.
| Thu. Nite |
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| PIT (9-3) | 14 | Cle (4-8) | Pit 14-3 |
| Pit | Pit |
| Sunday |
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| TB (4-8) | 3 | JACK (3-9) |
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| TB | TB |
| NE (9-3) | 9 | WASH (4-8) |
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| NE | Wash |
| CIN (7-5) | 3 | Hou (9-3) |
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| Cin | Hou |
| NYJ (7-5) | 10½ | KC (5-7) |
|
| NY | NY |
| DET (7-5) | 9½ | Min (2-10) |
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| Min | Min |
| NO (9-3) | 3½ | TENN (7-5) |
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| Tenn | NO |
| MIA (4-8) | 3 | Phi (4-8) |
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| Mia | Mia |
| BAL (9-3) | 16½ | Ind (0-12) |
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| Ind | Bal |
| Atl (7-5) | 1½ | CAR (4-8) |
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| Atl | Atl |
| DEN (7-5) | 3½ | Chi (7-5) |
|
| Den | Den |
| SF (10-2) | 3½ | ARIZ (5-7) |
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| SF | SF |
| GB (12-0) | 11½ | Oak (7-5) |
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| Oak | GB |
| SD (5-7) | 7½ | Buf (5-7) |
| Elvis | SD | SD |
| Sun. Nite |
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| DAL (7-5) | 4½ | NYG (6-6) |
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| NY | NY |
| Mon. Nite |
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| SEA (5-7) | 10 | StL (2-10) |
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| Sea | Sea |
Some of our thoughts and observations included:
- We only differ on five picks this week, so I still can't make up the season-long deficit I've been in since Week 4. And we're trying to shake off the rough start to this week from Thursday. We start in Jacksonville, where one of my FedEx Mail-It-In Teams™ hosts the Buccaneers, who also don't appear to be giving their best effort. Tampa's D may be bad, but so is Jacksonville's O, so we'll pick the slightly better Bucs to cover, although this smells like a push to me. Jason wants the only real quarterback in this game, and that would be a hobbled Josh Freeman of TB.
- New England vs. Washington is a mismatch under most circumstances, but we just saw the Pats D almost blow the whole game to the winless Colts, so Jason will pick the Redskins to cover because they certainly have a better offense than Indy. Rex Grossman can drop back and fling it off one foot with his eyes closed and move the ball better than the Colts and Dan Orlovsky, right? While I agree on that point, I just think that New England can come back and score at will because Washington still doesn't cover or tackle. The Pats might be a little embarrassed by letting the Colts so close at the end, and I don't think they will allow the Skins to hang around.
- Cincinnati is hanging on to playoff hopes, so I'm picking them to play desperate and pull out a victory over the impressive Texans, who really showed Jay something last week. He's all-in on Houston after they ran the ball with ease and D'ed up Atlanta down in Texas. While I too was impressed, I'm making T.J. Yates do another solid QB job on the road at a decent defense without Andre Johnson. If he pulls this off, he'll really show me something.
- I was sure that Jason would never lay 10½ and take Total Fraud ever in his lifetime, but he simply observed that the Jets were playing Tyler Palko as justification for picking New York. I concurred, and we moved on.
- We're both sour on the Detroit Lions, who aren't ready to contend because of maturity issues and injuries. I say they're ready to fall out of playoff contention, so I'm picking the Vikings to win, and no, I don't believe that Adrian Peterson will come back this week for Minnesota. I just think the Vikings will play more focused and better disciplined, which isn't hard to do against Jim Schwartz and company. Both Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley are out, so look for Minny to pound the Lions up the middle all day with whomever is running the ball. This spread would be my Lock of the Week, not straight up, mind you, just the spread.
- Here's one where we are split in a big way. I'm taking the Titans to spring the upset on the Saints because New Orleans is coming off two prime-time home games where they got to strut their stuff and show the world how big and bold they are on their turf, and they're ripe for a physical ass-kicking by someone. And the Titans can be that team because they're playing well, they're in the playoff hunt, and Chris Johnson is running the ball like a maniac. It's like he's Dan Fielding in that episode of Night Court when he sees a hot military officer who wants him to serve under her, so to speak, and the medical maladies that he was faking to shirk his duties suddenly wear off. "Wait...I feel better," he deadpans before busting out a mambo. Johnson has been dancing all over his last couple of opponents, and New Orleans cannot stop the run. They're allowing 4.9 yards per rush. This sets up for a monster game for CJ. Jason likes the Saints squoosh because they're on such a roll that he thinks they will not be stopped just because they're outside.
- My other FedEx Mail-It-In Team™, the Eagles, welcome back Michael Vick this week, just in time to face maybe the hottest team in football outside of Wisconsin, the Miami Dolphins. We think it will not be a kind welcome back for Vick. Jason has made this his Lock of the Week.
- I'm taking those big points again, baby! Indianapolis is giving monster points again, this time 16½ at the Ravens, and I have to take the Colts because when the hell do the Ravens ever beat someone by 17 points? Sure, Indy can give up big passing plays to Joe Flacco and then get gashed on the ground by Ray Rice, but for Baltimore to cover, all that has to happen, plus the Ravens have to guard against falling asleep and letting Dan Orlovsky come in the back door for a late cover. I'm betting against all of that going right for Baltimore. Jason points out that this ain't the Patriots defense that Indy would have to come back against, and while that's very true, it's also not New England's offense building the initial lead, so I feel fairly comfortable taking all those points. And let it be known that Jason originally picked Indy when he heard the line and spent the next two minutes talking himself out of it and taking the Ravens, so if Indy covers, Jason can really get pissed because he wanted them initially.
- Okay, Falcons, one more chance. One more opportunity to prove you belong in the discussion for NFC contenders and not be considered a joke. This Carolina defense is awful and will let you have anything you want--run, pass, whatever. Just take it. We're watching you, dirty birds...oh, and Jason was prepared to take Carolina all week until the moment of truth, when he just couldn't do it. The Panthers don't hold on and beat good teams this year. They're putting up crazy numbers against everybody, but that D usually gives it all back. Carolina gets the win over mostly bums, and Atlanta (hopefully) ain't no bum.
- We both give in to the power of our Lord and Savior Jesus Christ! Oh, how we've forsaken you, Jesus! We haven't both believed in you together, but this week, you play a Chicago team without its starting QB or RB, and it sets up to be a low-scoring gruntfest, right up your alley! Yes, we admit that the Bears should provide the toughest defensive test for Jes--I mean, Tim Tebow. But that's how bad Caleb Hanie is. We think he'll turn the ball over enough to give the Broncos excellent field position and allow Denver to cover that 3 and a hook.
- San Francisco is still playing to have a 1st-round bye in the playoffs, so they should still be motivated to go smother the Cardinals in Arizona by more than 3½ despite having clinched their division last week. Let's see how many big runs Beanie Wells can provide for Arizona in this game. My guess is, not many.
- Jason will go with the Packers to bounce back from the scare in Gotham last week and trounce the Raiders. I'll take those big points, and it wouldn't be the biggest surprise to me if Oakland snuck out a win. Oakland is similar to Tampa Bay, who recently came in to Lambeau Field and almost upset Green Bay. The Raiders will smack you in the fucking mouth with the run game, like Tampa. But Oakland has a better passer and much better pass defense than Tampa, not that Oakland's pass D will really slow down Aaron Rodgers any. But the Packers D should allow a Carson Palmer-led comeback, provided Palmer doesn't throw it to the team in green and yellow.
- Jason has declared the Buffalo-San Diego line an Elvis Game on the basis of spotting a trap in the 7½-point spread. He believes that we're supposed to see all those points and automatically take Buffalo because they used to be good this season, and San Diego stinks, so he's gonna avoid that trap and just take the Chargers, no matter the number. The Chargers are much better than the Bills, enough to give that many points and believe that it's not enough.
- Jay actually mentally dissected the Sunday night game and struggled with his pick. Ultimately, he felt that this was a Dallas 3-point win waiting to happen, and he picked the Giants to cover at Dallas because Dallas is the dumbest team in history, as evidenced by last week. I'm scared that the Cowboys may let last week affect them, so I'm taking New York to win. How can you go out as a Cowboys player and go hard for that coach anymore? "Yeah, we were close at the end, but we were afraid our coach would try to ice our own kicker again, so we decided to throw the ball towards the end zone before he had a chance to fuck up the game for us." Should be high-scoring, should be very fun,and should end in the Giants' favor.
- And Jason begged me to pick the same as him for the Monday night finale just so that he didn't have any reason to watch any second of that game. "Clean out the litter box" was one of the things Jason thought more worthy than watching St. Louis visit Seattle. Despite the fact that he was shocked to hear that the Seahawks were favored by 10 over the Rams or anybody, he still took the Seahawks, and that's in connection with my pick, as it turned out. I think I heard Jason crying tears of joy over not having to pay attention on Monday now. I don't have any fancy stats here, just that Seattle is mediocre, St. Louis is horrible, and it doesn't matter if the Rams start Sam Bradford at QB or A.J. Feeley or someone named Tom Brandstater. Just lay the 10 and go do something more fun with your life than watch this game.
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