| Fav | Spread | Dog | Dre | Jay | ||
| Thu. Nite | ||||||
| MIN (5-2) | 5½ | TB (2-4) | TB 36-17 | |||
| Sunday | ||||||
| GB (4-3) | 14½ | Jack (1-5) | GB | GB | ||
| NYJ (3-4) | 1 | Mia (3-3) | NY | Mia | ||
| SD (3-3) | 3 | CLE (1-6) | Cle | Cle | ||
| TENN (3-4) | 3½ | Ind (3-3) | Ind | Tenn | ||
| NE (4-3) | 7 | StL (3-4) | London | StL | StL | |
| PHI (3-3) | 3 | Atl (6-0) | Phi | Phi | ||
| CHI (5-1) | 7½ | Car (1-5) | Chi | Car | ||
| DET (2-4) | 1 | Sea (4-3) | Det | Det | ||
| PIT (3-3) | 4 | Wash (3-4) | Pit | Wash | ||
| KC (1-5) | 1 | Oak (2-4) | Oak | Oak | ||
| NYG (5-2) | 1 | DAL (3-3) | NY | Dal | ||
| Sun. Nite | ||||||
| DEN (3-3) | 6 | NO (2-4) | Den | Den | ||
| Mon. Nite | ||||||
| SF (5-2) | 7 | ARIZ (4-3) | SF | SF | ||
Some of our thoughts and observations included:
- We start in Green Bay this week, where one of the preseason picks for best team, the Packers, host one of the picks for worst team, the Jaguars. No reason to see things differently here, despite Green Bay's early struggles. Jason's observation of the mammoth 14½-point spread: It's not enough. We like Green Bay squoosh. It's not just the Aaron Rodgers resurgence, it's a possible advantage on the ground now that Maurice Jones-Drew is MIA for the Jags.
- The Jets went to South Beach and survived the Dolphins in OT earlier this season despite not pulverizing Reggie Bush as they promised in their usual loudmouth manner. Now they host Miami and Bush, and while I don't see them putting him out of the game this time either, I can see them outlasting the Fish again. Every several weeks or so, Mark Sanchez shows flashes of why the Jets picked him so high, and this may be one of those weeks, with Miami missing a starter at CB, Richard Marshall. Jay can't stand the thought of picking the Jets more than once a blue moon.
- We both hesitated before blurting out Cleveland over San Diego. It's more an indictment of Norv Turner and the hapless Chargers than an endorsement of the Cleveland Browns. We both got Brown Fever for one more week despite getting screwed by them last week vs. the Colts. Jason compared it to battered wife syndrome, where we're back for more punishment despite knowing it's not good for us. Brown Fever. Hmmm, sounds like something you pick up after one too many runs for the border.
- I'm believing in those Colts this week at the Titans because Andrew Luck hasn't shown me a reason to not back him when he gets a crack at one of the worst defenses in the league. And Tennessee is one of the worst. That game with Buffalo last week was a joke. Neither defense was the least bit interested in stopping the other team, until Buffalo's last possession, when the Titans finally decided to mount a stand and fuck me out of another pick. Well, I'm glad to side with Luck in another high-scoring shootout situation. Jason will side with Chris Johnson in another situation where he gets to run against a terrible rush defense. Yes, it worked wonderfully for CJ200 last week. Let's see him do that again.
- Overseas, we've known that the Patriots were going to be a big favorite against the Rams ever since we knew the matchup. But now that the game's here and we see the 7-point line, we're going to back the underdogs here. New England's not playing very sharp for Jason's tastes, and they are 0-2 ATS the last two weeks. I'm taking the Rams with the number because that D-line is the type that hampers Tom Brady from having monster games. They like to ignore RBs and rush straight for the QB and make things uncomfortable in the pocket. Neither of us have the nuts to take St. Louis to win, however.
- Speaking of nuts, an untrustworthy Michael Vick, a damn near already fired Andy Reid, and a disappointing Eagles squad are favored against the undefeated Falcons? That's crazy! How can the oddsmakers do that? It's so disrespectful of Atlanta's achievements, it's incredible, it's...yeah, we're both taking Philly. We've been toasted too many fucking times over the years by an Andy Reid team coming off the bye and walloping their opponent. Yes, Atlanta's coming off their bye as well, but admit it, it's got to be more nerve-wracking to be the Falcons sitting on that 6-0 record and going into that environment at the Linc than to be the Eagles, who are used to pressure and scrutiny. Plus, Jason says he still doesn't want any part of Matty Ice in a big game.
- The hook may be huge in the Panthers-Bears tilt. If Cam Newton can get it together, Carolina doesn't have to win to cover the spread, just stay within a TD. Jason will play those odds. I won't because I don't see Cam getting it together. Jay tried to cite Cam lighting up the feared Chicago defense last season, and the thing about that is, Cam lit up everybody last year. Something happened, and this ain't last year, it's the year of the soap opera Cam's Crisis of Confidence, and I don't see the soap opera ending this Sunday against one of the league's hottest teams.
- China Doll's getting some flak for not keeping up with the pace from last year's stellar season. Again, this is a different year. Actually, Matthew Stafford and the Detroit Lions are 2nd in passing yards per game this year, so he's not horrible, just not as awesome as last season. They're sure to outthrow Russ Wilson and the Seahawks on Sunday, and Seattle's sure to outrush the pathetic Detroit RB corps, so it's as much of a toss-up as it gets. I usually side with the better passing team when it's a toss-up like that. Jason will go with Detroit as well. Seattle's done some impressive stuff at home, but the rah-rah shit only goes so far when traveling, and the Seahawks are only 1-3 on the road this year.
- Jason's gettin' cute for the Redskins-Steelers matchup. He likes Pittsburgh to win but Washington to cover that thin 4-point spread. He's really hoping for a FG battle. I can't blame anyone for liking Washington here. They're a runaway train on offense behind Robert Griffin III, and the Steelers have been anything but. However, they showed me something last week against Cincinnati. Offensive coordinator Todd Haley seemed to let Ben Roethlisberger open up the passing attack early to set up the run late, just like Pittsburgh used to do with Big Ben. Methinks they may be onto something, and the terrible Washington defense will let them experiment and find more ways to succeed.
- Wait, that wasn't a bad dream? We actually did trust Brady Quinn last week? What the fuck were we thinking? And now we get the treat of Interception Santa and Quinn in the same game. Oh, joy. We'll go with Santa in honor of Christmas coming soon. Jason worried about me not throwing out my usual crappy stats. I have a few still up my sleeve. I haven't hit full depression yet. But if I fall below .500 after that great start I had, I may fall into a hole and start making picks with no stats at all, just pulling stuff out of my ass completely. But here's a stat for y'all: You can't take the Chiefs to beat INT Santa and the Raiders because Kansas City's secondary has managed a measly 4 interceptions all season!
- In the main event of the afternoon, Dallas attempts to replicate its opening-night shellacking of the Giants, and I'm glad to take New York with no stats cited because Dallas sucks ass against the Giants in that gargantuan new stadium Jerry Jones constructed. Jason simply says that the Giants are so up and down that it would fit them to violate San Francisco and then nearly lose to the Redskins and get beat again by the Cowboys. Keep a look out for how effective Dallas and Tony Romo can be throwing the rock with no running threat, as they may be without DeMarco Murray and Felix Jones.
- After two weeks of going head-to-head in prime time, we're in lockstep for these two night games. On Sunday, Peyton Manning and the Broncos continue their killer early-season sked as they host Drew Brees and the Saints. We're going with Denver despite the Saints getting hot their last two contests on offense. That D remains hot garbage. Who else would let Josh Freeman throw for 400 yards?? Now, the interim coach, Joe Vitt, comes off suspension to replace the interim interim guy, whose name I never learned. So who does the defensive-minded Vitt get to face his first game? Peyton and the 4th-rated Denver passing game. Good luck, pal.
- On Monday, the Cardinals will attempt to stop their freefall (0-3 SU, 0-4 ATS) against still one of the toughest defenses in the NFL, San Francisco, who rebounded nicely off their embarrassing beatdown from the Giants to smother Seattle. And the 49ers get to go from Russell Wilson to...John Skelton?!? Show of hands of those who think Skelton is better than Wilson right now. Yeah, me neither. We'll go with San Fran to win on the road in a division game and cover a TD spread. That's a very tall order, but Arizona's no damn good right now. Here's some more stats so that I can further ruin this pick for us: SF brings the #2 run game and #1 pass D to Glendale, both averaging 5.9 yards per play. What can possibly go wrong???
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